摩根大通：美国铝关税翻倍，铝市不确定性大增

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稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

摩根大通：美国铝关税翻倍，铝市不确定性大增

2025-06-13 17:40:36 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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摩根大通分析师在最新报告中指出，上周美国出人意料地将铝关税提高了一倍至 50%，这给该行业带来了巨大的不确定性。

50% 的关税似乎并没有完全反映在美国中西部地区铝价相对于伦铝价格的溢价中。虽然美国现有的库存可以形成短期缓冲，但很快就会消耗殆尽。鉴于 50% 的关税最终是否会取消，或者关键豁免是否会减轻压力存在不确定性，两个地区铝的溢价似乎处于瘫痪状态。

从美国铝库存情况来看，目前其库存水平虽能暂时缓冲关税冲击，但随着时间推移，消耗速度会加快。一旦库存告罄，市场供应将面临严峻考验。美国作为铝消费大国，关税翻倍后，进口铝成本大幅上升，本土铝生产企业虽可能迎来一定发展机遇，但短期内难以迅速填补供应缺口。这将导致美国国内铝市场供需失衡加剧，价格波动也将更加剧烈。

对于全球铝市场而言，美国提高铝关税也带来了连锁反应。一方面，原本出口至美国的铝产品可能会转向其他市场，造成全球铝贸易流向的重新分配，冲击其他地区铝市场的供需格局；另一方面，关税的不确定性使得全球铝产业链上的企业在制定生产、采购和销售计划时面临更大困难，投资决策也变得更加谨慎，阻碍行业的正常发展。

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摩根大通：美国铝关税翻倍，铝市不确定性大增

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