美国上调钢铝关税后铝市场现波动短期价格或走强

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

美国上调钢铝关税后铝市场现波动短期价格或走强

2025-06-17 16:41:54 来源：期货日报责任编辑：王欣悦

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当地时间 6 月 3 日，美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25% 提高至 50%，政策于美国东部时间 6 月 4 日凌晨 00 时 01 分起生效。政策落地后，美国中西部电解铝现货升水大幅走高，LME 铝现货亦转为升水状态。

宏观层面，美国 5 月 CPI 数据多数低于预期，通胀压力暂时缓和，目前该关税政策尚未对通胀产生明显影响。不过，年内美联储降息预期持续、美元走势趋弱，为铝价提供利好支撑。

供应方面，国内铝土矿供应稳定。5 月我国铝土矿产量 536.64 万吨，环比增 5.31%，同比增 8.97%；4 月进口量 2068.4 万吨，创历史新高。虽 5 月几内亚铝土矿政策收紧，Axis 矿区采矿许可证被撤销，但预计我国 2025 年铝土矿进口量仍可满足需求。海外部分铝土矿供应国加强资源管控，给全球供应带来不确定性。

生产端，氧化铝价格回升促使企业复产，预计 6 月氧化铝运行产能将回升至 8795 万吨／年左右；5 月我国电解铝产量 372.9 万吨，同比增 2.7%，环比增 3.4%，6 月运行产能预计维持高位。4 月我国原铝进口 25.05 万吨，出口 1.37 万吨，净进口 23.68 万吨，国内生产主导供应格局。

下游需求进入淡季，上周铝行业周开工率降至 60.9% 。各细分领域表现不一，原生铝合金行业开工平稳，铝板带部分企业开工走低，铝线缆订单分化，铝型材领域建材等开工下滑但 3C 等领域需求支撑明显，铝箔行业加工费触底被迫 “以价换量”，再生铝国内外订单均下滑。

库存方面，截至 6 月 11 日，LME 铝库存降至 35.76 万吨，国内铝社会库存降至 47.7 万吨，全球铝库存约 96.6 万吨，较去年同期减少 100.6 万吨，去库存趋势显著。

综合来看，尽管下游需求淡季限制铝价上涨，但多重利好因素叠加低库存现状，短期铝价存在进一步走强动能，后续需关注库存、关税政策效果及需求变化。

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美国上调钢铝关税后铝市场现波动 短期价格或走强

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美国上调钢铝关税后铝市场现波动短期价格或走强