期货日报：“矿荒”导致“锭缺”，沪铜主力合约重回80000元／吨关口

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

期货日报：“矿荒”导致“锭缺”，沪铜主力合约重回80000元／吨关口

2025-07-03 09:31:38 来源：期货日报责任编辑：韩泽楷

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7月首个交易日，LME铜期货3个月合约一度触及10000美元／吨的整数关口，沪铜期货主力合约也随之上涨并站上80000元／吨关口。

山金期货投资咨询部负责人王云飞认为，近期铜价回升有两大原因：一是美国以外的市场低库存状态延续。LME和国内精铜社会库存分别下降至9万吨和12万吨的历史同期低位。从季节性因素出发，全球铜市三季度不存在明显的累库期，在美国高溢价购铜的背景下，市场对非美市场库存耗尽的担忧增加。二是上半年铜原料产量增长不及预期。一季度全球铜矿产量增长2.5%左右，但仍低于年初的预期，再加上受“对等关税”政策影响，美国废铜出口一度受阻，导致原料产量增长进一步放缓，加剧了精铜供需不平衡的状况。

“另外，从宏观层面来看，近期国内经济数据回暖，上半年消费表现良好，短期市场对需求的担忧有所缓解，叠加未来存在中美贸易摩擦缓和、美联储降息等潜在利多，近期有色金属价格整体回暖带动铜价走强。从供需层面来看，上半年全球精铜的需求缺口较大，国内消费政策发力，财政和相关建设项目也加速释放需求，叠加特朗普政府的关税政策带来的需求前置效应，上半年精铜需求远超市场预期。”王云飞说。

“目前铜市的核心交易逻辑是矿端出现历史级供应紧缩。”国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，Antofagasta与中国冶炼厂2025年的年中谈判结果将TC/RC价格敲定为0.0美元／干吨及0.0美分／磅，远超市场预期，凸显了全球铜矿商在供应紧张背景下的议价优势。考虑到未来全球铜精矿供应短缺与中国冶炼产能过剩的结构性矛盾正在加深，虽然硫酸等副产品的收益暂时可以减轻冶炼厂的亏损压力，但-60美元／吨的TC极端水平已超越多数企业的承受阈值。

看向需求端，据顾冯达介绍，上半年铜市需求韧性较强。我国电网投资上半年同比增速接近20%，在一定程度上对冲了房地产行业疲软对空调产量的拖累。更为关键的是，全球三大交易所和保税区库存降至45万吨左右的绝对低位，且6月底7月初全球逆势去库反映出现货电解铜供应趋紧，“矿荒”导致“锭缺”的产业链现状，构筑了铜价中长期难以大幅下跌的基础。

展望后市，王云飞认为，需关注两个要点：一是美国对全球终端需求的“轧空”行为何时停止。该问题的核心指标是LME铜—COMEX铜的价差变化，政策端主要关注美国“232”调查结果以及LME未来是否会有应对政策出现。如果铜价未来上涨过快而下游无力接货，那么本轮“轧空”大概率会以冲高回落收场。二是下半年需求能否延续强势。需求情况决定了下游会在多大程度上接受当前市场对精铜的定价。如果需求良好，铜价潜在的上涨空间就会更大。

顾冯达表示，地缘风险溢价消退以及资金博弈加剧进一步放大了铜价的波动性。本轮铜价波动已从商品属性驱动转向金融属性驱动，7月沪铜期货主力合约或在78000~83000元／吨区间宽幅震荡。

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期货日报：“矿荒”导致“锭缺”，沪铜主力合约重回80000元／吨关口

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