沪锌失势下行，低库存能否续写 “救市” 传奇？

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

沪锌失势下行，低库存能否续写 “救市” 传奇？

2025-01-20 11:49:15 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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供需面变化
矿端供应：2024 年海外矿山复产不顺及矿石品位下降，国内火烧云投产预期增量未达预期，导致内外锌矿供应紧张，锌矿加工费极低。但自去年 12 月中旬起，国内和进口锌矿加工费持续反弹，11 月锌矿进口量环比大增近四成，且今年因锌矿成本下行、利润好转，全球锌矿项目复产及新增将贡献增量，矿紧局面有望边际缓解。
锭端生产：2024 年矿紧导致锌冶炼厂利润压缩，国内锌冶炼厂签订长单比例有限，7、8 月就出现减产超预期的情况，全年精炼锌产量低于预期值且累计同比下降近 7%。而 2024 年 12 月国内锌冶炼厂检修和复产并存，产量小幅增加，2025 年 1 月预计继续增加，不过仍有少部分地区检修减产及部分企业春节放假。
需求方面：2024 年底，受美国后续关税政策不确定性及春节前外贸企业抢时出口影响，部分金属需求表现尚可，但锌市处于需求淡季，且下游镀锌终端应用较大的房地产市场在 2024 年延续下行周期。不过，制造业中新能源汽车与家电行业起到一定支撑作用。临近春节假期，下游企业陆续停工放假，需求季节性下滑明显。
情绪面变化
前期多头情绪浓厚：2024 年 11 月 25 日和 26 日，LME 锌注销仓单大幅增加，LME 注册仓库中可供使用或已担保的锌库存减少，注销占比升高，现货贴水转升水，且部分合约持仓集中度较高；同期上期所锌仓单不断下滑，而沪锌近月合约持仓保持高位，持仓库存比高位运行，带动多头情绪，使沪锌突破 26000 关口。
后期情绪缓解及转弱：12 月中旬之后，LME 锌注销仓单回落，注销占比下滑，沪锌仓单虽继续去化，但近月合约持仓下降，挤仓情绪缓解，锌价回落回吐流动性溢价。随着锌市供需面转弱，沪锌下跌势头流畅，市场情绪逐渐转向悲观。
低库存对锌价支持的延续性
支持力度可能减弱：虽然目前锌市仍处于低库存状态，但随着矿端供应的逐步恢复和锭端产量的增加，供应紧张局面将逐渐缓解，对锌价的支撑作用会相应减弱。此外，需求淡季使得下游采购意愿相对较低，市场对低库存的敏感度可能会降低。
短期仍有一定支撑：由于春节假期临近，下游企业陆续放假，供应增量释放有限，年后库存累积幅度可能有限，在短期内低库存仍将对锌价起到一定的支撑作用，预计锌价不会出现大幅下跌。

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沪锌失势下行，低库存能否续写 “救市” 传奇？

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