2025 铅市场展望：从供应紧张到平衡的转变与价格波动

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025 铅市场展望：从供应紧张到平衡的转变与价格波动

2025-01-21 09:32:57 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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2024 年，铅市场经历了较为剧烈的波动，价格走势呈现出先升后降的态势。年初，受产业内部矛盾影响，铅价迅速攀升，一度达到近六年来的峰值。但随后，铅价逐渐回落，全年价格振幅超过 20% 。在供应层面，国内铅市场供应紧张，这直接刺激了进口需求的增长，尤其是铅锭的进口量显著增加。然而，由于消费增长乏力，市场去库存进程缓慢，进口窗口未能大幅开启。铅精矿加工费的下降，清晰地反映出冶炼厂利润空间受到压缩，原料供应瓶颈问题依然突出。此外，再生铅产量因废电瓶原料供应不足而出现下滑，进一步加剧了市场供应短缺的局面。

展望 2025 年，铅市场有望从供应紧张逐步向资源平衡的状态转变。从全球范围来看，铅矿产量预计将实现 1.8% 的增长。但在冶炼综合收益的驱动下，高银矿预计仍将处于供不应求的状态，矿端增产的传导效应较弱，这将进一步增加冶炼环节供应的不确定性。与此同时，随着副产品收益的提升，原生铅产量的恢复情况将在很大程度上取决于冶炼厂的盈利水平。预计国内原生铅供应将增长 1%，而再生铅供应则因废电瓶原料瓶颈的限制，增速可能维持在 0%。综合来看，全球精铅总供应预计增长 0.8%。

在需求方面，2025 年国内经济的复苏将为铅消费提供有力支撑，特别是以旧换新政策的持续推行，有望进一步刺激消费增长。此外，东南亚市场，尤其是两轮车领域的消费，具有较大的增长潜力。预计全球铅消费增速将达到 0.8%。不过，国内市场仍可能存在 5 万吨左右的铅锭供应缺口，而海外市场则可能出现 15 万吨的供应过剩。

价格走势上，鉴于 2025 年铅市场预计不会出现短缺，市场供需将趋向平衡。全球铅库存预计将累积 10 万吨，这将对铅价的上行空间形成一定限制。预计铅价整体将呈现宽幅波动的态势，且波幅相比 2024 年可能有所收窄。其中，沪铅价格波动区间预计在 16000 - 18800 元 / 吨，伦铅价格波动区间预计在 1900 - 2300 美元 / 吨。在比价关系上，由于国内市场相对紧缺，中国进口窗口可能会阶段性开启，跨市反套策略或为投资者带来较好的交易机会。

总体而言，2025 年铅市场在供应端和需求端都将迎来边际改善。但由于矿端增产可能超出预期，铅价仍将面临一定的下行压力。企业和投资者需密切关注市场动态，合理调整经营和投资策略，以应对市场变化带来的挑战和机遇。

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2025 铅市场展望：从供应紧张到平衡的转变与价格波动

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