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分析人士：铜市逐步回归基本面定价

2025-08-06 09:20:53 来源：文华财经责任编辑：韩泽楷

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进入8月，国际市场铜交易逻辑出现显著变化。在关税扰动减弱后，市场关注点又将转向哪里?

美国白宫7月30日表示，美国总统特朗普签署了一项命令，宣布对几类进口铜产品征收关税，自8月1日起生效。不过，铜输入材料(例如铜矿石、精、铳铜、阴极铜和阳极铜)和铜废料不受“232条款”或对等关税约束。

此项关税政策落地后，COMEX期铜应声大跌逾18%。此前，美国总统特朗普在7月9日宣布，将从8月1日起对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的关税，受该消息影响，当天COMEX期铜拉涨17%。

国贸期货有色金属分析师方富强告诉期货日报记者，此次美国政府宣布不对进口精炼铜等输入材料加征关税，主要带来的影响有两方面。一是市场价差方面，由于期货盘面的交易标的物为精炼铜，该举措缓解了美国国内精炼铜的挤仓担忧，COMEX期铜也难以保持对其他地区的溢价。消息公布后，COMEXSVE期铜价差由2700美元吨快速缩减到300美元吨以下。二是精陈铜贸易、前期市场对美国加征关税的预期，推升7COMEX与LME铜市场溢价，导致大量精炼铜流入美国。今年上半年美国铜进口量同比增129%，达到86万吨，COMEX铜库存持续累积。在此次政策落地后，预计精炼铜发往美国的动力将减弱。

“特朗普对精炼铜不加征关税，意味着COMEX与LME期铜价差将大幅收窄至合理水平，其至更低。”国泰君安期货有色分析师季先飞表示，这种价差收窄主要通过COMEX铜价大幅下跌来完成，LME铜价波动相对稳定。他认为，随着美国关税政策落地，市场价差逐步回归到合理水平，铜的物流逻辑将发生变化，LME铜库存将出现边际回升。

中信建投期货有色研究员张维蠡进一步解释称，此次盘面以美铜大跌、沪伦铜回落来实现价差的修复，主要与现货搬运预期的反转有关。今年3-5月美国进口阴极铜高达54.16万吨，相当于2024年全年进口量的59.65%，前期“铜恐慌"透文了美国常规的进口水平，而目前COMEX铜仍在不断家库，预计短期美国境内精炼铜面临严重过剩。此外，近期沪伦铜比走强，中国进口窗口打开，亦利于现货回流。

在张维鑫看来，8月处于宏观政策“真空期”，加之关税政策不确定性减弱，预计铜价的波动性下降，将回归基本面定价。供需层面上，原料紧张赋予铜价韧性与抗跌性，尤其8-10月国内月均至少有3家冶炼企业开启检修。但在需求方面，终端消费维持淡季特征，尤其电网耗铜量(线缆用铜量)亦存在阶段性压力。他表示，供需双弱或对铜价形成拖累，但需关注铜价走跌对下游需求的激活。

方富强也表示，目前铜市场处于供需双弱的格局，近期虽然铜矿现货加工费有所提高，但仍处于-42美元,吨的低位，采用现货铜矿的治炼厂亏损明显。另外，近期硫酸价格持续走高，采用长协的铜治炼厂可保持一定的盈利水平，这也导致7月份国内精炼铜产量进一步走高。当前下游需求淡季特征明显，鲁加铜价持续高位运行，下游按需采购。废铜供应偏紧格局延续，铜精废价差持续低位运行，有利于精铜消费。

从宏观角度看，张维蠡认为，目前市场的乐观风险偏好逐步回归理性。在海外市场，美国制造业PM!和非农就业数据均“降温”，美元走弱、铜价企稳但同时美国经济衰退压力趋增，若经济数据进一步走软，在“衰退式”降息下，铜价面临下行风险。

具体表现上，方富强表示，美国7月非农数据不及预期，特别是5-6月份非农数据大幅下修，叠加7月份!SM制造业指数超预期下滑，一定程度上提振美联储年内降息预期，也引发市场对美国经济陷入衰退甚至滞胀的担忧，预计短期衰退预期主导盘面，对铜价利空。

从更长周期来看，季先飞认为，铜价的驱动逻辑将更加侧重全球基本面，根据对供需的判断，下半年铜供应略有过剩，预示着价格将会承压。但是价格下跌后，下游和终端可能逢低买货，铜显性库存将出现去化。美联储降息预期对经济起到托底的作用，铜价在低位也会获得支撑。

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[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002454s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002433s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 48 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000431s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 49 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000390s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 50 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000447s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000513s ]

分析人士：铜市逐步回归基本面定价

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