全球铝市场正走向严重短缺

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

全球铝市场正走向严重短缺

2025-09-19 11:11:09 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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全球铝市场正经历着一场深刻的变革，从长期的供应过剩逐步转向严重短缺的局面。花旗银行发出警告，市场正“梦游般走入20年来最大赤字”。当前铝价处于2700美元/吨，而若要避免全球金属枯竭的危机，铝价需涨至3000美元以上，并在相当长的时间内维持在这一高位水平。

LME库存状况不容乐观，自今年5月以来，总库存始终在70万吨附近徘徊。与去年同期的100万吨相比，减少了30万吨;与四年前的300万吨相比，更是大幅萎缩。库存的减少使得交易所流动性显著下降，市场供应愈发紧张。

俄罗斯铝流向发生重大转变，由于制裁限制，其难以进入LME体系。大量俄罗斯铝转而流向亚洲市场，这使得原本就紧张的LME交易所库存状况雪上加霜，进一步加剧了市场的供应紧张局面。

海外铝生产面临着诸多结构性挑战。美国虽对关税政策有所调整，但全球多地冶炼厂仍因高能源成本运营困难。南非32公司甚至警告，可能会关闭莫桑比克冶炼厂，这将进一步削减全球铝的产能。

印尼成为全球新增供应的唯一希望，但花旗预计到2030年，其年产能仅能达到230万吨，与700万吨的规划目标相去甚远。这主要是因为新建冶炼厂面临着能源供应的重大挑战，能源供应的不稳定使得印尼铝产能的扩张难以达到预期。

在需求端，新能源和电动汽车行业对铝的需求呈现出快速增长的态势。随着全球对新能源汽车的推广以及新能源产业的蓬勃发展，铝作为重要的原材料，其需求为全球消费提供了强劲支撑，进一步加剧了供应缺口的压力。

铝市场正站在历史性转折的节点上。回顾过去三十年，铝市场的危机大多由供应过剩引发，而如今，下一场危机将是前所未有的供应短缺型危机。这一转变将深刻影响全球铝产业链，从生产、贸易到消费的各个环节都将面临新的挑战与机遇。

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