2025年全球原铝市场：短缺持续深化下的供需重构与产业链机遇

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年全球原铝市场：短缺持续深化下的供需重构与产业链机遇

2025-10-16 17:13:49 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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一、核心数据透视：短缺格局持续深化

2025年全球原铝市场短缺格局持续深化，从单月数据来看，8月全球原铝产量为613.45万吨，消费量达623.99万吨，供应短缺10.54万吨，这一态势延续了7月11.99万吨的短缺情况，同时终结了此前3-6月的阶段性过剩;从累计数据来看，2025年1-8月全球原铝产量4850.26万吨，消费量4966.13万吨，累计短缺115.87万吨，这一数值远超机构年初预测的63万吨全年缺口(雪球，2025)，充分反映出当前原铝供需失衡正在加剧。而氧化铝供应则相对宽松，2025年1-8月全球氧化铝产量为9946.5万吨，按原铝生产1:2.5的氧化铝单耗测算，这些产量可支撑约3979万吨原铝生产，与当前4850万吨的原铝产量相比存在原料缺口，但得益于全球氧化铝同比预计增产650万吨(雪球，2025)，未来氧化铝供应偏紧的局面有望得到缓解。

二、短缺成因：供应刚性约束与需求结构升级的碰撞

全球原铝短缺的形成，源于供应端的刚性约束与需求端的结构升级相互作用。在供应端，全球产能扩张普遍遇阻，不同区域面临各自的核心制约因素：中国受4500万吨产能红线与能源成本上升的双重影响，2025年8月原铝产量为380万吨，同比下降0.5%，且云南地区电价上调0.12元/度，进一步增加生产压力;欧洲则因天然气价格同比上涨30%，此前能源危机导致的减产产能仅能少量恢复，复产进程缓慢;其他海外地区则受项目落地滞后、原材料供应不足及权证办理等问题困扰，2025年全球原铝新增产能仅为54万吨，难以满足需求增长。在需求端，新能源领域成为核心增长引擎，2025年1-8月中国新能源汽车销量达808.8万辆，同比增长30.1%，单车用铝量约250kg，带动全球新能源汽车领域原铝需求达375万吨，同比增长25%;光伏领域同样表现亮眼，2025年1-7月国内新增光伏装机223GW，同比增长81%，1GW光伏装机耗铝1.8万吨，且再生铝在光伏支架中的占比将突破50%。与此同时，传统领域需求也呈现边际改善，建筑领域中房屋竣工降幅收窄，保交楼政策推动建材用铝需求回暖，电力领域特高压项目开工量增加，拉动铝杆消费增长。

三、市场影响：库存低位支撑铝价强势

当前原铝市场的供需格局，使得库存低位成为支撑铝价强势的关键因素。从库存结构来看，全球原铝显性库存虽有回升，但仍处于历史低位，2025年相关数据显示，LME原铝库存为51.7万吨，同比增长50%，上期所原铝库存为12.8万吨，同比增长35.5%，但流通领域的现货供应依然偏紧，市场紧平衡状态未被打破。在此背景下，机构对铝价的预判呈现分化：短期来看，2025年四季度沪铝价格预计在20400-21400元/吨区间震荡，受库存与供需短期变化影响;长期来看，花旗集团将铝价目标看至3000美元/吨，认为这一价格水平有望刺激更多产能释放，而高盛集团则预测2026年全球原铝缺口将扩大至150万吨，对铝价长期走势持乐观态度。

四、产业链机遇：成本优势与结构升级主线

全球原铝市场的供需重构与短缺格局，也为产业链带来了明确的机遇方向，核心主线围绕成本优势与结构升级展开。在水电铝领域，尽管云南地区电价有所上调，但相较于其他能源类型的铝厂仍具备成本优势，云铝股份、中国铝业等水电铝龙头企业，凭借稳定的成本控制能力有望持续受益;在再生铝赛道，受光伏、新能源汽车等领域需求推动，再生铝因环保属性与成本优势，市场占比不断提升，预计2025年全球再生铝在原铝消费中的占比将突破50%，相关再生铝生产企业迎来发展机遇;在高端铝材领域，随着“以铝代铜”趋势加速推进，以及高端铝材国产化替代进程加快，专注于高端铝材研发与生产的企业，将在新能源、高端制造等领域的需求增长中获得更多市场空间。

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2025年全球原铝市场：短缺持续深化下的供需重构与产业链机遇

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