基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

弗里德兰：全球铜需求将加速增长

2025-10-27 09:19:08 来源：自然资源部责任编辑：韩泽楷

分享到：

打印

复制链接

国际矿业资深人士罗伯特·弗里德兰（Robert Friedland）称，未来20年内，全球铜需求将加速增长，从而出现供不应求局面，世界经济将面临前所未有的挑战。他警告，未来18年，即使要实现温和的经济增长，人类所需要的铜也相当于过去1万年累计铜产量。过去几年弗里德兰一直在公共场合讲的这些话已证实为先见之明。“这是对旧经济的报复”，2021年他说。“20年来，能源转型所需铜的勘查投资不足”。他认为，铜既是经济增长也是国家安全的基石。铜的应用广泛，从电网到军事装备，它已成为现代工业的命脉。2025年10月，铜价已经飙升至5美元/磅，大约11130美元/吨，较5个月之前上涨55%。国际矿业资深人士罗伯特·弗里德兰（Robert Friedland）称，未来20年内，全球铜需求将加速增长，从而出现供不应求局面，世界经济将面临前所未有的挑战。他警告，未来18年，即使要实现温和的经济增长，人类所需要的铜也相当于过去1万年累计铜产量。过去几年弗里德兰一直在公共场合讲的这些话已证实为先见之明。“这是对旧经济的报复”，2021年他说。“20年来，能源转型所需铜的勘查投资不足”。他认为，铜既是经济增长也是国家安全的基石。铜的应用广泛，从电网到军事装备，它已成为现代工业的命脉。2025年10月，铜价已经飙升至5美元/磅，大约11130美元/吨，较5个月之前上涨55%。

短缺经济

尽管铜价回升，但目前的价格仍不足以刺激新的铜生产。弗里德兰预测，铜价必须达到15000美元/吨才能刺激大量投资新矿山建设。“9000美元/吨不足以让投资冒险”，2023年下半年他说。“未来20年全球需要巨量的铜。这是过去4年我对铜需求进行的预测。它不需要复杂的方法来预测铜价走向。铜将再次出现上涨。”需求上升与供应有限的缺口已经是现实挑战。标普全球（S&P Global）预测，按照目前的消费速度，到2043年全球将需要7亿吨铜才能满足3.5%的全球经济年均增幅。

战略要点

铜的重要意义远不止于经济。弗里德兰强调，铜对于国防意义重大，指出美国军方对155毫米榴弹炮（一种火炮武器）炮弹短缺的担忧。“如果有人用枪指着你，你需要那块铜来回击”。这种紧迫性迫使人们呼吁美国铜矿业复兴，该行业几十年来几乎没有新的发展，对外国资源的依赖现在给供应稳定和安全带来了威胁。

政策和政治转变

弗里德兰指出，美国政府特别是现任总统特朗普当局最近已经认识到需要在国内获得原材料。

“作为矿商，我们看到了政府更多支持”，他说。“新政府正确地专注于确保世界上最大的经济体能够稳定足量获得原材料”。随着铜价向他的长期预测目标迈进，投资者和政策制定者正在密切关注。弗里德兰将这种情况描述为“随时准备爆炸的火药桶”，并补充说，铜需求“基本上是无限的”，因为“你绝对必需拥有的东西不问价格”。尽管铜价回升，但目前的价格仍不足以刺激新的铜生产。弗里德兰预测，铜价必须达到15000美元/吨才能刺激大量投资新矿山建设。“9000美元/吨不足以让投资冒险”，2023年下半年他说。“未来20年全球需要巨量的铜。这是过去4年我对铜需求进行的预测。它不需要复杂的方法来预测铜价走向。铜将再次出现上涨。”需求上升与供应有限的缺口已经是现实挑战。标普全球（S&P Global）预测，按照目前的消费速度，到2043年全球将需要7亿吨铜才能满足3.5%的全球经济年均增幅。

战略要点

政策和政治转变

弗里德兰指出，美国政府特别是现任总统特朗普当局最近已经认识到需要在国内获得原材料。

免责声明
北方有色网提供的信息仅供参考，不作为决策建议，客户需自主判断决策，并自行承担相关后果。本报告版权归北方有色网所有，仅限客户自身使用。如需引用，须联系申请授权；未经书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以任何形式传播、发布、篡改本报告。北方有色网保留追究任何侵权行为法律责任的权利。

日报

更多+

▪2025年12月18日钴市场日报[12-18]

▪2025年12月18日钛市场日报[12-18]

▪2025年12月18日稀土市场日报[12-18]

▪2025年12月18日锌市场日报[12-18]

▪2025年12月18日电解铝市场日报[12-18]

周报

更多+

▪《锆市场周报》第50周（12.8-12.12）[12-16]

▪《铜市场周报》第50周（12.8-12.12）[12-15]

▪《电解铝周报》第50周（12.8-12.12)[12-15]

▪《铅锌周报》第50周（12.8-12.12)[12-15]

▪《钛市场周报》第50周（12.8-12.12）[12-15]

研究报告

更多+

▪碳酸锂价格有望高位震荡-2025年11月碳酸锂月报[12-08]

▪《锌市场月报》第11月（10.1-10.30)[12-08]

▪《铝市场月报》第11月（11.1-11.30）[12-05]

▪《钛市场月报》第11月（11.1-11.30）[12-05]

▪《钛市场月报》第10月（10.1-10.31）[11-20]

主编视角

更多+

▪主编视角：稀土元素——半导体行业进步的多重推进器[11-21]

▪主编视角：钼金属——半导体微型化的新引擎[11-21]

▪刚果（金）“掐住”钴咽喉，中国新能源如何破局？[11-20]

▪印尼按下“暂停键”，全球镍产业迎来大变局？[11-20]

▪Empire Metals公司在吉隆坡TZMI大会展示Pitfield钛项目，揭示全球钛产业新焦点[11-14]

热点

更多+

▪投资5亿！武汉6万吨铁锂电池回收项目投产，干法技术领跑行业[12-18]

▪2025光伏行业盈利改善亏损持续收窄[12-18]

▪封关启幕：金融“活水”筑牢海南自贸港开放基石[12-18]

▪印尼拟大幅下调2026年镍矿产量目标[12-18]

▪深圳27人走私管制金属锑锭166余吨出境主犯被判12年[12-18]

基本文件流程错误 SQL 调试

/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/public/index.php ( 0.75 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/start.php ( 0.72 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/base.php ( 2.60 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Loader.php ( 21.07 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/composer/autoload_static.php ( 3.95 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/symfony/polyfill-mbstring/bootstrap.php ( 8.26 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/ezyang/htmlpurifier/library/HTMLPurifier.composer.php ( 0.10 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/topthink/think-captcha/src/helper.php ( 1.94 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Route.php ( 60.23 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Config.php ( 6.38 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Validate.php ( 41.63 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Error.php ( 3.75 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/convention.php ( 10.37 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/App.php ( 21.51 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Request.php ( 49.78 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/config.php ( 10.17 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/database.php ( 1.96 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Hook.php ( 4.71 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/tags.php ( 0.96 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common.php ( 37.25 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Env.php ( 1.21 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/helper.php ( 17.30 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Lang.php ( 7.41 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Log.php ( 6.05 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/lang/zh-cn.php ( 11.81 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/route.php ( 4.08 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/index/controller/News.php ( 30.40 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/index/controller/Base.php ( 3.86 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Controller.php ( 6.07 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/traits/controller/Jump.php ( 4.90 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/View.php ( 6.77 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/view/driver/Think.php ( 5.64 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Template.php ( 44.90 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/template/driver/File.php ( 2.24 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/library/RedisUtil.php ( 0.83 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Cache.php ( 6.10 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/cache/driver/Redis.php ( 5.37 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/cache/Driver.php ( 5.98 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/Para.php ( 0.09 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Model.php ( 69.14 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Db.php ( 6.67 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/connector/Mysql.php ( 3.89 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/Connection.php ( 29.97 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/Query.php ( 96.74 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/builder/Mysql.php ( 4.53 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/Builder.php ( 31.55 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Debug.php ( 7.13 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/News.php ( 3.74 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/Cate.php ( 0.59 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/Admin.php ( 0.09 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/consts/NewsConst.php ( 0.28 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/IndexCate.php ( 0.45 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/consts/CommonConst.php ( 0.71 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/runtime/temp/ae754a079b49dad486f0fa457bc10d5b.php ( 139.96 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/consts/CacheConst.php ( 0.26 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Url.php ( 12.72 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Response.php ( 8.28 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/debug/Html.php ( 4.17 KB )

[ DB ] CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000542s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=ysscdb;charset=utf8mb4
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_para` [ RunTime:0.000854s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000515s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_news` [ RunTime:0.000718s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_news` WHERE `id` = 6436 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000616s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_cate` [ RunTime:0.000643s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 103 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000393s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_admin` [ RunTime:0.000610s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_admin` WHERE `id` = 5 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000402s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 10 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000393s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`title`,`url` FROM `tb_news` WHERE `cate_id` = 98 ORDER BY `submit_date` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.007086s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_index_cate` [ RunTime:0.000662s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_index_cate` WHERE `cate_aid` = 1 ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.000482s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=10 and cate_cid=27 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=113 and mode02=-1 and mode03=941 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.456837s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 10 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000486s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=11 and cate_cid=38 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=14 and area_cid=91 and mode01=184 and mode02=621 and mode03=1095 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.497783s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 11 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000480s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=12 and cate_cid=46 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=325 and mode02=-1 and mode03=1231 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.446270s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 12 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000430s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=13 and cate_cid=49 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=377 and mode02=696 and mode03=1275 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.455889s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 13 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000411s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=14 and cate_cid=54 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=419 and mode02=-1 and mode03=1400 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.455110s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 14 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000441s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_advert` [ RunTime:0.000991s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000545s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 10 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 8 [ RunTime:0.002637s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 11 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 8 [ RunTime:0.002532s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 2 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 6 [ RunTime:0.002499s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 12 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 5 [ RunTime:0.002449s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 13 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 5 [ RunTime:0.002444s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 6 [ RunTime:0.002470s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3246 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002439s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3248 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002486s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3245 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002442s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 10 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002468s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 11 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002444s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 12 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002477s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 13 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002475s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 14 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002467s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 19 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002440s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 15 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002458s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002454s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002426s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002437s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 48 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000398s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 49 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000402s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 50 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000416s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000524s ]

弗里德兰：全球铜需求将加速增长

有色金属报告推荐