2026年铝价上调逻辑：供需逆转主导，新能源与产能约束添力

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2026年铝价上调逻辑：供需逆转主导，新能源与产能约束添力

2025-10-28 16:35:53 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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从当前市场预期与供需格局来看，2026年铝价已进入明确的上升通道，核心逻辑在于供需关系从过剩收缩向缺口隐现转变。根据30位分析师的预测，2026年伦敦金属交易所(LME)现货铝均价将达2679美元/吨，较7月预测上调3%，而头部机构更显乐观，华泰证券将目标看向3200美元/吨，美银则预计同年第四季度价格可触及3000美元/吨。供需层面的质变尤为关键，此前预测的2026年全球铝供应过剩量从28.15万吨收窄至25万吨，美银与华泰证券甚至认为这一格局将进一步逆转为短缺，缺口规模可能在29.2万至84.3万吨之间，这意味着2023-2025年的供应过剩周期或将正式终结。支撑这一趋势的核心驱动力可概括为“三驾马车”，即中国产能触及政策天花板、新能源领域需求爆发式增长，以及全球铝库存处于历史低位。

从供应端来看，增长停滞的硬约束已十分明显。作为全球最大铝生产国，中国的铝产量已逼近每年4500万吨的政府规定上限，2025年同比增速仅能维持在2.3%左右，未来进一步扩产的空间基本消失。与此同时，出口退税政策取消叠加产能限制，使得中国未锻造铝出口量逐步回归历史中位水平，这进一步收紧了全球市场的供给。海外市场的产能增量同样难以填补缺口，2026年印尼预计新增68.5万吨产能，但受电力配套不足影响，相关项目已延迟18个月;欧美地区新增产能约39.7万吨，却因能源成本高企导致复产进度缓慢，两者叠加下全球全年新增产能仅约108万吨，增速1.9%，显著低于2.3%的需求增速预期。库存层面的支撑也在持续显现，目前全球铝库存处于7年低位，美国中西部铝溢价持续攀升，反映出关税成本向终端传导的态势，而欧洲市场可能因南非Mozal冶炼厂停产，损失8%左右的进口量，进一步加剧区域供给紧张。

需求端的增长动力则主要来自新能源革命催生的结构性爆发，三大高增长领域成为需求主力。新能源汽车领域，单车用铝量较传统燃油车提升40%，以特斯拉Cybertruck为例，单车用铝量已达350公斤，预计2026年该领域全球铝需求占比将超过20%;光伏领域，2025年全球光伏装机量有望突破400GW，对应的铝需求将超500万吨，其中铝制边框与支架占光伏组件成本的15%，成为关键需求来源;数据中心领域，单座超大规模数据中心用铝量可达千吨级，随着AI算力扩张推动散热系统需求激增，铝的导热特性使其在该领域的应用需求快速增长。区域需求呈现双轮驱动格局，中国市场依托电网升级与光伏装机规模扩大，2026年铝需求增速预计维持在2.1%，继续创历史新高;欧美市场方面，美国关税政策倒逼企业加强铝采购竞争，欧洲则在财政刺激政策推动下，铝需求逐步触底回升，形成与中国市场的协同增长。

成本端的约束进一步强化了铝价的韧性。电解铝生产对电力依赖度极高，吨铝耗电量达1.3万-1.5万千瓦时，而中国水电铝占比仅30%，能源结构对成本的支撑有限;欧美地区电力成本较中国高40%，美国铝业甚至因成本倒挂问题陷入电网资源争夺。替代效应的加成也不容忽视，当前铜铝价比已接近4.0的关键节点，市场普遍认为，一旦这一比值突破4.2，将触发铝对铜的大规模替代，进一步放大铝的需求空间。

在风险层面，仍需关注三大潜在变量对市场的影响：供应超预期风险主要来自中国若放宽产能上限可能带来的供给增加;需求疲软风险与欧美制造业复苏不及预期相关，若复苏进度滞后，可能抑制铝的消费需求;贸易摩擦风险则集中在关税政策调整，一旦相关政策发生变化，将直接冲击铝的进出口贸易，进而打乱全球供需平衡。正如渣打银行分析师苏达克希娜・乌尼克里希南所言：“成本与供应的动态约束，叠加新能源需求的长期增长，将使铝价获得跨周期支撑。”

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2026年铝价上调逻辑：供需逆转主导，新能源与产能约束添力

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