2025 年 9 月全球及中国氧化铝产量深度解析：供需格局、成本利润与未来展望

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025 年 9 月全球及中国氧化铝产量深度解析：供需格局、成本利润与未来展望

2025-10-28 16:44:27 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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2025年9月全球及中国氧化铝产量呈现“全球同比增长、中国环比微降”的核心特征。从全球来看，9月产量达1288.4万吨，较去年同期的1199.3万吨同比增长7.4%，这一增幅主要得益于海外产能的持续释放；不过环比来看，较8月修正后的1332.1万吨下降3.3%，反映出季节性生产扰动对全球产量的影响。中国方面，国际铝业协会预计9月产量为795万吨，虽较8月修正后的803万吨环比微降1.0%，但同比增幅仍达8.4%；需注意的是，不同机构统计口径存在差异，百川盈孚、SMM口径下中国9月氧化铝产量分别为762.3万吨、760.4万吨，主要原因在于统计范围是否包含非冶金级氧化铝。

当前氧化铝市场处于内外双重增量下的过剩压力中。国内生产呈现扰动与复产交织的态势：一方面，山西雨季导致当地氧化铝减产40万吨，北方阅兵活动短期抑制焙烧量，南方部分企业检修也集中于9月上半月，对国内产量形成一定压制；另一方面，西南某企业从压产状态恢复满产，推动9月中国氧化铝日均产量达25.41万吨（8月为25.14万吨），开工率同步升至84.9%，部分抵消了减产带来的影响。原料结构则呈现分化特征，国产矿9月产量488万吨，同比下降2.32%，主要受北方降雨及矿难扰动导致供应偏紧；进口矿库存则环比增加31万吨至2896万吨，随着雨季结束，进口矿供应有望逐步修复。海外市场方面，印尼、印度成为氧化铝产量增长的主要引擎，9月印尼氧化铝产量49.84万吨，同比大幅增长47.16%，主要得益于南山铝业100万吨氧化铝产能在三季度投产；印度9月产量79万吨，同比增长18.1%，受Vedanta冶炼厂持续放量推动。海外产量攀升也带来价格传导效应，西澳氧化铝FOB价跌至323美元/吨，较7月下降15%，国内氧化铝进口利润达79.8元/吨，进口窗口持续开启。

从需求与库存维度看，氧化铝过剩格局正持续强化。从供需平衡表来看，9月国内冶金级氧化铝供应762.3万吨，叠加8.75万吨进口量，扣除20万吨出口及21万吨非铝用需求后，对应电解铝364.88万吨需求（单耗按1.93吨/吨铝计算），当月过剩量达25.83万吨。库存方面，国内氧化铝总库存升至463.9万吨，同比增加72.1万吨，自5月起的累库进程尚未停止；与此同时，电解铝厂原料库存也增加16.2万吨至315.9万吨，进一步反映出市场供过于求的态势。需求端虽存在一定韧性，1-5月光伏装机量同比大幅增长149.97%，新能源汽车轻量化趋势也推动铝材需求提升，但电解铝消费增速仅为2.6%，难以消化氧化铝供应增量，对市场支撑有限。

成本利润层面，氧化铝价格下跌正不断挤压行业盈利空间。成本方面，9月中国氧化铝加权平均成本为2857元/吨，环比下降32元，主要原因是铝土矿成本下降35元，抵消了烧碱、动力煤成本合计上升7元带来的压力。利润层面，9月氧化铝现货均价3098元/吨，环比下降5.1%，行业利润降至241元/吨；其中山西地区使用进口矿的氧化铝完全成本达3180元/吨，部分企业已逼近亏损线，盈利压力显著增加。

展望未来，10月氧化铝市场或迎来供应调整，价格仍将承压运行。供应端来看，当前氧化铝企业检修规模有限，但随着10月末可能出现的成本倒挂，预计将触发部分企业减产，综合判断10月中国氧化铝产量或降至785万吨，日均产量较9月略有下降。过剩格局方面，预计10月氧化铝过剩量将进一步扩大至30.95万吨，进口量或增至16.95万吨，过剩压力加大将进一步压制市场价格。价格预判上，下半年氧化铝现货价格主流区间或在2900-3300元/吨，需重点警惕几内亚政治风险可能引发的铝土矿供应扰动，这一因素或对市场形成阶段性冲击。

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2025 年 9 月全球及中国氧化铝产量深度解析：供需格局、成本利润与未来展望

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