铜铝齐飞！当贵金属黯然失色时工业金属的“冲锋号”依然嘹亮

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铜铝齐飞！当贵金属黯然失色时工业金属的“冲锋号”依然嘹亮

2025-10-28 16:50:37 来源：财联社责任编辑：韩泽楷

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在黄金和白银的升势遇阻之际，工业金属的“冲锋号”眼下依然嘹亮……

行情数据显示，伦铜价格周一一度升破了11000美元大关，逼近去年5月创下的历史高位11104.5美元。同时，伦铝价格也在近期发力，隔夜一举刷新了逾三年高位2889.5美元。

业内人士表示，工业金属本周伊始延续升势的原因，在于交易员预期全球贸易紧张局势将有所缓解，同时主要经济体经济增长和需求强劲的希望，也刺激了买盘。

有金属交易商称，中国9月份工业利润增速为近两年来最快，这表明作为工业金属第一大消费国的中国，经济增长势头可能正在增强。美元兑人民币汇率近来走软，也使得以美元计价的商品对中国买家来说更加便宜。

此外，对美联储本周将再度降息的预期，也对美元构成了进一步压力，并有可能刺激相关有色金属的需求。

铜价有望继续上涨?

根据一项本周最新发布的业内调查显示，在一系列矿山中断加剧了人们对短缺和市场缺口的担忧之后，分析师已纷纷上调了对明年铜价的预测。

铜被广泛用于电力和建筑，通常被视为全球经济的晴雨表，今年迄今为止伦铜价格已累计上涨了25%。

业内媒体对30位分析师的预测中值显示，2026年LME现货铜均价料为10500美元/吨，较7月份上次调查的9796美元预测上调了7.2%。

经济学人智库大宗商品资深首席分析师Matthew Sherwood表示：“我们预计铜价将维持近期涨势，并延续至2026年及以后。近期事态发展表明，精炼铜市场将比我们先前预测的更早趋紧。”

全球第二大铜矿——印尼格拉斯伯格铜矿，上月因泥石流淹没矿区导致七名工人死亡而暂停运营。该起事故促使分析师共识预测逆转——它们目前预计2025年铜市场供应缺口将达12.4万吨，而此前调查的预测为过剩4万吨。

他们如今还预计，到2026年铜市场供应缺口将扩大至15万吨。

铝将是下一风口?

财联社在半个月前就提醒过投资者，随着“铜铝比”接近4，铝可能将成为下一个站上风口的金属。而过去两周，铝价的涨幅也确实丝毫不比铜价逊色。

伦铝价格本月迄今的涨幅约为7%，这使年内涨幅扩大至了接近13%。铝价上涨部分原因是市场担忧供应问题，因为最大生产国中国的铝产能已非常接近4500万吨的年限额，同时电力供应的紧张也正在限制全球铝产量增长。

渣打银行分析师Sudakshina Unnikrishnan表示：“从成本和供应角度看，多种因素可能在中长期支撑铝价。需求前景依然乐观，尤其是可再生能源领域的需求。”

业内最新调查显示，预计2026年LME现货铝均价将达每吨2679美元，较上次调查预测值上调3%。分析师们还将2026年市场供需盈余共识值从上次调查的28.15万吨下调至25万吨。

铝的导电性虽不及铜，但其轻质特性使其在电力系统和电动汽车领域，具有着重要的应用价值。根据伍德麦肯兹的数据显示，在能源转型过程中，电动汽车已成为铝需求的主要增长点。

除了汽车行业外，铝还是太阳能领域仅次于钢的第二大金属原材料。随AI热潮兴起的数据中心领域，对铝的需求也在增长，其散热器、冷却系统及主体结构均采用铝材制造。

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铜铝齐飞！当贵金属黯然失色时 工业金属的“冲锋号”依然嘹亮

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