2025年2月19日钽锆市场日报：报价持稳成交暗降政策与技术博弈加剧

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年2月19日钽锆市场日报：报价持稳成交暗降政策与技术博弈加剧

2025-02-19 09:44:01 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势：钽价持稳暗降，锆市区域分化

钽市场
- 钽锭（Ta≥99.95%）：主流报价维持2800元/千克，但实际成交价下探至2750-2780元/千克，部分厂商因资金压力让利出货。
- 五氧化二钽（Ta₂O₅≥99.5%）：高端货源报价1570-1630元/千克，下游压价至1550元/千克以下，低端冶金级成交价跌至1500元/千克，周环比降2.6%。
锆市场
- 锆英砂（Zr(Hf)O₂≥65%）：港口现货报价12300-15500元/吨，区域分化显著：
  - 广东湛江港低品位矿（65%）成交价12300元/吨，较上月跌5%；
  - 山东烟台港高品位矿（66.5%）报价15500元/吨，但无成交记录。
- 氧氯化锆（Zr(Hf)O₂≥36%）：龙头企业挺价14500元/吨，中小厂暗降至13900-14200元/吨，实际成交均价环比降1.8%。

二、供需博弈：原料紧俏与需求疲弱并存

供应端
- 钽矿进口受限：南非港口罢工导致12月钽精矿到港量同比减少15%，仅320吨；国内宜春矿品位下降，开采成本升至2100元/千克，逼近冶炼厂盈亏线。
- 锆矿“量增质降”：12月锆矿进口量15.25万吨（环比增8.27%），但澳大利亚Iluka低品位矿占比降至30%，港口库存升至22万吨（可用高品位矿仅40%）。
需求端
- 钽下游“电子+军工”双杀：
  - 消费电子：全球智能手机Q4出货量降12%，钽电容订单量缩减至850吨/月（正常水平1100吨）；
  - 军工：航空材料厂长单执行量下调20%。
- 锆产业链“光伏难救陶瓷”：
  - 光伏：N型硅片渗透率提升，但12月光伏装机仅8.5GW（同比降12%），需求增量被抵消；
  - 陶瓷：建筑陶瓷开工率55%，硅酸锆成交价跌至15000元/吨（较年初降25%）。

三、市场动态：政策博弈与产业升级

政策扰动
- 国务院宣布2025年1月起下调环硅酸锆钠进口关税至2%（原5%），国产锆化学制品竞争加剧。
- 商务部将锆矿纳入境外资源统计，中资企业拟入股莫桑比克锆矿项目，长期或增强资源掌控力。
企业动态
- 三祥新材：完成首批核级海绵锆生产，并获军工资质认证，计划拓展固态电池、核级锆等高附加值领域。
- 东方锆业：挺价氧氯化锆14500元/吨，但面临中小厂低价竞争压力。

四、后市展望：短期弱稳，中期关注政策与技术变量

短期（1个月内）
- 钽价或下探2700元/千克支撑位，五氧化二钽成交中枢降至1520元/千克；
- 锆英砂或跌破12000元/吨，氧氯化锆暗降至13500元/吨。
中期（3个月）
- 政策变量：若3月“两会”上调光伏装机目标至220GW，硅酸锆需求或环比增15%；
- 技术风险：硅基量子点光伏技术中试成功（隆基实验室），若量产将减少30%锆需求。

策略建议：

钽企业：与军工客户签订“成本加成”协议，锁定20%毛利；
锆贸易商：利用期货贴水（当前较现货低8%）进行反套操作；
终端用户：建立“钽-锆-稀土”联合采购池，提升议价权。

风险提示：

美联储若Q1加息50个基点，或引发电子产业链需求二次探底；
钙钛矿电池商业化加速，或永久性替代锆在光伏玻璃中的应用。

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2025年2月19日钽锆市场日报：报价持稳成交暗降 政策与技术博弈加剧

一、价格走势：钽价持稳暗降，锆市区域分化

二、供需博弈：原料紧俏与需求疲弱并存

三、市场动态：政策博弈与产业升级

四、后市展望：短期弱稳，中期关注政策与技术变量

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2025年2月19日钽锆市场日报：报价持稳成交暗降政策与技术博弈加剧