美国铝溢价暴涨 155%：关税壁垒与供应短缺的双重绞杀

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

美国铝溢价暴涨 155%：关税壁垒与供应短缺的双重绞杀

2025-11-11 16:28:03 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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美国铝溢价之所以飙升至历史高位，核心源于关税政策的“三重冲击”与全球供应的结构性坍塌形成的共振效应。首先是关税政策层面，2025年6月特朗普政府将铝进口关税从25%大幅提升至50%，直接使每吨铝的关税成本从560美元激增至1425美元，这一成本已占到当前现货价格(4792美元)的29.7%;到了8月，征税范围进一步扩容，新增407种含铝衍生产品至关税清单，覆盖包装、建材等下游领域，进一步压缩了进口空间;更关键的是供应链断裂风险的加剧，加拿大作为美国最大的铝供应来源，2024年对美出口量达270万吨，占美国总进口量的70%，而10月美加贸易谈判破裂后，市场对长期断供的担忧直接推动溢价跳升。在全球供应端，结构性短缺问题同样严峻，中国作为重要供应方，2025年化铝及其制品出口量为1063万吨，同比减少25万吨，使美国丧失了最大的补充来源;非中国地区的铝产量也持续下滑，2023-2025年间年产量减少110万吨，叠加LME铝库存50.6万吨与美国国内库存65万吨的历史低位，全球铝市场缺口已扩大至180万吨，而新能源领域需求的爆发更让缺口进一步扩大至200万吨——光伏用铝需求年均增长15%，新能源车单车用铝量达250公斤，供需矛盾持续激化。

在关税壁垒与全球供应短缺的双重作用下，美国铝价飙升的影响正沿着产业链向下传导，对多个依赖铝材料的行业造成直接冲击。精酿啤酒业首当其冲，铝罐成本占比从15%升至22%，导致上半年行业产量萎缩5%，两年内倒闭的厂商超过2000家，就连内华达山脉酿酒公司等龙头企业，利润也下滑了30%;建筑业同样承压，铝合金建材价格同比上涨42%，加州某商业地产项目因成本严重超支被迫暂停，全美预计2025年建筑用铝需求将下降8%;电力设备领域也未能幸免，变压器用铝线圈成本激增，杜克能源因此推迟了3个输变电项目，投资规模缩减12亿美元。除了直接冲击，隐性成本的传导同样不容忽视，美国劳工部数据显示，铝价上涨推动包装类CPI同比上涨2.8%，占核心通胀增幅的11%，成为通胀的重要推手;同时，成本压力还抑制了行业创新，精酿啤酒商被迫缩减15%的风味研发投入，甚至放弃进口特殊麦芽、啤酒花等原料，创新活力受到明显制约。

从未来趋势来看，美国铝市场的高溢价状态预计将持续至2026年，这一方面源于政策的刚性——特朗普政府已明确表示任期内不会就铝关税问题开展谈判，关税永久化的预期已形成市场共识;另一方面则是供需失衡的进一步加剧，摩根大通预测2026年全球铝市场缺口将扩大至150万吨，而中国电解铝4500万吨的产能天花板限制了供应弹性，难以缓解全球短缺。不过，市场也存在两大潜在变量可能改变这一格局：一是中国政策的调整，《铝产业高质量发展实施方案》提出2027年再生铝产量达到1500万吨的目标，再生铝产能的释放或能缓解长期供应短缺;二是替代效应的显现，当前铜铝价比已升至3.9倍，电缆行业中铝材对铜材的替代率已从12%提升至18%，替代需求的增长将在一定程度上对冲铝价上涨带来的需求压制。

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美国铝溢价暴涨 155%：关税壁垒与供应短缺的双重绞杀

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