几内亚矿端扰动再起氧化铝市场反应趋缓

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

几内亚矿端扰动再起氧化铝市场反应趋缓

2025-11-12 17:19:45 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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2025年11月6日，几内亚矿业部秘书长Aboubacar Korouma签署官方指令，要求AGB2A-GIC与SD Mining两家企业于11月10日前，从Axis Minerals原有开采许可证覆盖区域撤出全部采矿设备。这一指令直接导致该关键矿区的复产进程再度陷入僵局，但与今年5月几内亚矿端扰动引发的市场剧烈震荡形成鲜明对比，此次消息公布后，国内外氧化铝市场反应尤为平淡。

历史复盘：5月矿端风波引发市场恐慌

今年5月，几内亚政府的矿业整顿行动曾引发全球氧化铝市场的强烈波动。当时几内亚官方宣布撤销40余家矿业企业的工业及半工业开采许可证，矿业局人员直接进驻Axis矿区下达停工命令，勒令所有在运行矿山暂停设备作业，导致该区域采矿活动全面中止。据统计，此次涉及顺达矿业等企业的停产矿区，年产能规模约达4000万吨，是几内亚矿业政策收紧的标志性事件。

市场对铝土矿供应中断的担忧迅速发酵，叠加当时国内氧化铝供应端已出现减产迹象，双重利空推动下，国内氧化铝期货价格大幅冲高，多个合约相继触及涨停板。从期货数据来看，5月相关消息发布后，氧化铝主力合约短期内涨幅超过8%，现货市场报价也同步跟涨，凸显出当时市场对几内亚铝土矿供应的高度依赖。

核心逻辑：供应格局重构削弱扰动影响

本次市场反应平淡的核心原因，在于全球铝土矿供应格局已发生根本性转变，市场对几内亚矿端风险的评估更为理性。根据几内亚矿业部门最新规划及行业预测，2026年该国铝土矿产业将迎来产能释放高峰，不仅有多个新项目计划投产，现有矿山的扩产工程也将逐步落地。尽管Axis矿区设备撤出会造成局部供应收缩，但几内亚全年铝土矿供应净增量仍有望达到2500万吨，这一增量规模足以对冲单个矿区的扰动影响。

从资源禀赋来看，几内亚铝土矿储量达74亿吨，占全球总储量的26%，优质矿脉的地质条件能够在一定程度上抵消基础设施不足的劣势，短期增产具备充足保障。这种供应端的增长预期，使得市场对几内亚个别矿区的风险敏感度显著下降，进而弱化了对氧化铝成本端的提振逻辑。

数据佐证：铝土矿市场供过于求成定局

海关及行业数据进一步印证了铝土矿市场的宽松格局。受5月末几内亚大规模撤销采矿许可证及传统雨季影响，7-8月几内亚矿山发运量持续下滑，直接导致9月中国铝土矿进口量环比回落——当月全国进口总量1588万吨，环比下降13.2%;其中自几内亚进口1049万吨，环比降幅达14.9%。但从累计数据来看，前9个月中国自几内亚进口铝土矿达11842万吨，同比增幅高达40.0%，年初五个月的发运高峰为全年供应奠定了坚实基础。

供需增速的错配更为关键。截至9月，2025年中国铝土矿累计进口量15763万吨，同比增长31.8%;而同期国内氧化铝累计产量6683.6万吨，同比仅增长9.82%。铝土矿进口增速远超氧化铝生产增速，直接导致市场呈现供过于求状态。即使短期出现几内亚矿端扰动，也难以改变当前宽松的供需格局，自然无法对氧化铝价格形成有效提振。

后市展望：供需博弈中寻求平衡

当前氧化铝市场正处于多空因素的博弈阶段。供应端已出现利多信号：随着行业利润持续收缩，部分氧化铝厂陷入亏损，叠加下游采购补库意愿下降，企业为缓解库存压力，除长单保供外已开始主动减压产;北方部分地区受污染天气管控影响，环保限产启动导致焙烧炉阶段性检修，短期产量释放受限。国际层面，全球氧化铝产量也呈下降趋势，2025年9月全球冶金级氧化铝产量环比下降3%，其中北美洲降幅达14%，澳大利亚奎纳纳氧化铝厂永久关闭进一步缩减了全球产能。

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