基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

铜产业高质量发展方案落地供给侧改革与资源保障双轮驱动

2025-02-20 10:17:22 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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中信证券今日发布铜行业深度报告指出，国家正式出台的《铜产业高质量发展实施方案（2025—2027年）》将通过“淘汰低效产能”与“强化资源保障”双向发力，重塑铜产业链竞争格局。研报认为，政策红利将加速行业分化，维持铜板块“强于大市”评级。

政策核心要点与影响分析

冶炼端：产能出清与盈利修复
- 淘汰目标明确：方案要求2025年底前淘汰粗炼产能50万吨（占当前总产能6.8%），2027年前再压缩100万吨，重点关停单厂规模低于10万吨、能耗高于300千克标煤/吨的落后产能。
- TC/RC回升可期：据测算，若150万吨产能出清落地，铜精矿加工费（TC/RC）有望从当前21.25美元/吨的历史低位回升至50美元/吨以上，头部冶炼企业单吨毛利或修复至1800元（现亏损约500元）。
资源端：增储上产破解“卡脖子”
- 国内矿山提速：2025-2027年计划新增铜资源储量2000万吨，重点开发西藏玉龙、新疆哈腊苏等铜矿，紫金矿业、西部矿业等企业旗下项目将获专项债支持。
- 海外权益矿加码：鼓励企业通过并购、参股锁定刚果（金）、秘鲁等区域资源，目标2027年权益矿自给率提升至35%（2024年22%）。

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铜产业高质量发展方案落地 供给侧改革与资源保障双轮驱动

政策核心要点与影响分析

铜产业高质量发展方案落地供给侧改革与资源保障双轮驱动