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德国商业银行调整基本金属价格预估

2025-11-27 15:38:22 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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德国商业银行(Commerzbank)近日调整了基本金属价格预估，核心原因在于当前基本金属价格持续上涨，市场近期动能表现有利。该行外汇和大宗商品研究主管Thu Lan Nguyen在一份报告中明确表示：“我们已经调整了基本金属的价格预估，在大多数情况下，基本金属的价格将高于此前的预期。”具体来看，价格预估调整呈现差异化特征，其中铜、铝、锌等金属价格获得上调，镍价则迎来下调。截至目前，该行预计到年底时铜的平均价将达到每吨10,500美元，较之前的9,600美元大幅上调;铝的均价预估从每吨2,600美元升至2,900美元，锌价预估也从每吨2,800美元上调至3,000美元。

不过Nguyen也补充给出了风险提示，他认为鉴于当前的供应背景，铜价当前的强势表现可能为时过早，这为短期回调留下了一定空间。与铜、铝、锌不同，镍价成为此次调整中唯一被下调的品种，他将镍价的预估从每吨16,000美元下调至15,000美元，背后原因在于尽管镍的产量增长有所放缓，但市场供应持续处于充足状态，这使得镍价面临明显的下行压力。值得关注的是，铝市近期还出现了显著的区域市场分化，在美国市场，进口铝升水在本月初短暂下跌后已飙升至纪录高位，这一现象与美国国内铝供应短缺、政府对进口铝征收50%关税，以及全球铝供应整体吃紧的多重因素直接相关。从库存数据来看，伦敦金属交易所(LME)的相关库存自10月中旬以来呈现下降态势，这一变化意味着关税驱动的供应效应可能正在减弱，而10月底出现的库存大增情况，据分析可能与某一贸易商为开展金融交易进行补库有关。

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