BMI谨慎看好明年全球采矿业前景

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

BMI谨慎看好明年全球采矿业前景

2025-12-10 10:05:10 来源：自然资源部责任编辑：袁梦

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据矿业周刊(Mining Weekly)报道，惠誉方案(Fitch Solutions)旗下的基准矿物情报公司(BMI)对明年大多数金属前景谨慎乐观，预计多数矿物和金属价格将小幅上涨，主要原因是关税不确定性减少，净零排放转型相关的行业需求强劲以及供应紧张。

BMI在《2026年采矿和金属行业关注点：全球经济趋稳推高收益》(Mining and Metals Key Themes For 2026: Global Economic Stability to Drive Gains)报告中预测，明年金价将继续上涨，但后期由于货币宽松政策转向，特别是美联储最终会停止降息，金价上涨势头将减弱。

BMI称，“我们预测2026年大多数矿物和金属均价将高于2025年，全球经济将随着贸易摩擦减少而趋于稳定。”

“关税不确定性在2025年8月份达到顶峰，虽然未来几个季度美国和其他经济体可能再度发生贸易摩擦，但我们的国家风险团队预计在2026年关税不确定性将继续减少”。

BMI补充说，总体上看这将支持对大宗商品的需求，但并不排除波动的可能，特别是某些金属可能面临美国为保护国内关键行业而征收关税的情况下。

BMI特别强调铜可能会受到提高关税的影响。美国商务部长需要在2026年6月30日前报告其国内铜市场的最新情况，以确定是否从2027年起对精炼铜征收15%、2025年起征收30%的关税。

关于贵金属，BMI指出，美国就业数据疲软可能导致美联储将在12月的会议上降息，预计金价将持续上涨到2026年。

也就是说，该公司预测金价将在2026年晚些时候跌至4000美元/盎司之下，因为2024年以来的宽松货币政策将收紧，特别是美联储可能最终停止降息。

“随着全球经济在2026年进一步趋稳，关税不确定性减弱，美元贬值停止，黄金创纪录的上涨趋势将在2026年第三季度消失”。

“的确，我们的国家风险团队认为美元指数(DXY)不会在2026年呈现类似2025年的波动，也就抑制了工业和贵金属价格的上涨”。

虽然BMI称仍预计未来几个季度DXY会在95-100间波动，但仍不排除可能走强的可能，特别是美国经济好过预期的情况下。

这将抑制金价继续上涨。

BMI认为，不可预见的供应中断、范围高于预期的贸易限制以及强于预期的刺激措施仍是其预测上调的主要风险。

主要观点

报告同时指出，2026年，产业政策仍将是各国获取关键矿产的主要抓手，大部分将来自欧盟和美国。

BMI认为，各国政府都将双管齐下：扩大国内产能，同时通过投资和战略伙伴关系稳定海外供应。

另外，BMI预计，在关键矿产竞争愈加激烈的情况下，金属和采矿业的强势并购势头将持续到2026年，行业参与者将首先考虑能源转型所需矿产，包括但不限于铜、锂和稀土。

大规模投资项目仍然是关注的重点，但规避风险的开发项目也在考虑之列。

BMI预计2026年仍将对前沿市场的矿业项目进行投资。

“虽然一段时间以来资源民族主义一直是最大担忧，但我们认为，包括非洲在内的各国政府和当地居民现在对其矿产资源提高了认识和议价能力”。

“与前几年相比，矿石选冶得到更多重视，全球矿业投资者别无选择，只能适应这些国家的矿产政策变化”。

“2026年，金属和采矿项目将从与科技、汽车和航空航天企业的合作中获得更多利益，包括通过承购协议，因为供应瓶颈将阻碍AI、机器人和国防等关键领域发展”。

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BMI谨慎看好明年全球采矿业前景

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