美国中西部原铝溢价首破90美分关税困局下市场博弈加剧

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

美国中西部原铝溢价首破90美分关税困局下市场博弈加剧

2025-12-16 16:41:13 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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2025年12月15日，美国铝市迎来历史性节点——中西部地区原铝溢价首次突破每磅90美分关口。这一由关税政策引发的市场波动，正持续冲击美国铝产业链上下游，同时也让行业对关税调整的预期愈发强烈。

据S&P Global Energy旗下的Platts(普氏能源资讯)当日评估，现货99.7%纯度P1020美国铝在中西部交货、30天净付款条款下，较伦敦金属交易所(LME)现货价的溢价达到每磅90.30美分。这一数据不仅较10月31日创下的前次纪录高出1.80美分，更较去年同期飙升近三倍，彰显出市场供应端的紧张态势。

溢价飙升的核心推手，是美国自2025年6月4日起对进口原铝实施的50%高额关税，其中加拿大受冲击最为显著。S&P Global Market Intelligence数据显示，2024年加拿大占美国原铝进口总量的70%，而美国铝行业对加拿大的依赖度实则更高——有数据显示美国汽车行业使用的铝材中约90%来自加拿大魁北克地区，且缺乏有效替代来源。关税落地后，加拿大铝对美出口成本激增，按当前伦铝价格测算，仅关税成本就已占美国现货铝价的近三成，直接导致美国原铝进口量持续萎缩，市场供应缺口逐步扩大。

进口渠道受阻的同时，美国国内库存已降至危险水平。S&P Global Energy CERA铝业分析师在11月26日的报告中指出，美国国内铝仓库库存目前仅约25万吨，仅能满足一个月的消费需求，且预计将进一步下降。库存告急与进口萎缩形成的“双重挤压”，让市场呈现出反常的供应短缺。“现在本不是一年中的繁忙时期，按理说应该有充足的金属供应，但现货询盘却源源不断。”一位铝生产商向Platts透露的行业现状，正是当前美国铝市供需失衡的真实写照。

高溢价已对下游产业造成实质性压力。作为铝材消费主力的汽车行业首当其冲，研究机构测算显示，钢铝关税已使美国电动汽车生产成本上升多达2500美元，燃油车成本也增加250至800美元，最终将通过终端售价转嫁至消费者。建筑、包装等依赖铝材的行业同样面临成本激增困境，部分企业已开始调整生产计划以应对成本压力。

值得关注的是，尽管溢价创下纪录，但市场对关税调整的乐观预期正在升温。“我们关注的焦点已从‘是否调整’转向‘何时调整’。”总部位于华盛顿特区的SAFE战略工业材料中心执行主任Joe Quinn明确表示，行业与政策层面已形成广泛共识——50%的关税对美国铝产业弊大于利。这一预期并非空穴来风：一方面，2018年特朗普政府签署的《美墨加贸易协定》正进入法定审查流程，三大贸易伙伴需在2026年7月前完成重新评估，关税问题被普遍视为谈判核心议题;另一方面，历史经验显示，特朗普政府此前曾因贸易谈判需求多次调整对墨加两国的关税政策，具备灵活调整的先例。

对于未来溢价走势，市场观点呈现谨慎平衡。铝业巨头美国铝业公司(Alcoa)12月3日曾表示，当前88至90美分的溢价已基本覆盖关税与物流成本，具备对美出口的经济可行性。一位资深贸易商则给出具体预判：“溢价回落至每磅87美分的可能性高于升至1美元，但90-91美分的区间波动仍有可能，只是上行空间已十分有限。”

业内分析认为，未来数月美国铝市将处于“政策博弈+供需调节”的关键期：若《美墨加贸易协定》谈判取得突破，关税下调将直接缓解供应压力;若关税维持现状，全球铝供应缺口扩大(预计2025年全球铝市缺口达180万吨)与美国本土电力成本高企(铝冶炼电价需求较科技企业低70%以上)的矛盾，将继续支撑溢价在高位运行。美国铝市的这一轮“关税困局”，最终或将在贸易政策调整与市场自我调节的双重作用下逐步破解。

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美国中西部原铝溢价首破90美分 关税困局下市场博弈加剧

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