2025年3月7日电解铜市场日报：铜价全线冲高触及年内峰值区域分化与关税扰动引爆升贴水博弈

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年3月7日电解铜市场日报：铜价全线冲高触及年内峰值区域分化与关税扰动引爆升贴水博弈

2025-03-07 15:09:36 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格概览

全国电解铜现货价格延续强势，单日涨幅普遍达665-680元/吨。其中，上海市场1#电解铜成交价报78,780元/吨，创年内新高；重庆市场中间价78,825元/吨领涨全国，但升贴水环比下调至升25元/吨，反映区域供需分化。分市场看：

华东（上海）：好铜品牌（如金川、贵溪）挺价至平水以上，升水0-20元/吨；平水铜贴水收窄至贴60-贴10元/吨，贸易商与下游博弈加剧。

华南（广东）：佛山升贴水持平（贴50~升30元/吨），高铜价抑制采购需求，仅刚需逢低入市，交投清淡。

北方（天津、沈阳）：贴水扩大至贴140~贴200元/吨，区域库存压力凸显，成交以低价货源为主。

二、市场动态与驱动逻辑

宏观政策扰动

美国关税预期：特朗普提议对进口铜加征25%关税的政策持续发酵，引发全球铜资源向美囤积，LME注销仓单激增42%，现货紧缺预期升温。

美联储降息节奏：市场对2025年美联储降息预期分歧加大，3月降息概率60%-80%，若落地或短期提振铜价，但长期受制于美元走强压力。

供需矛盾深化

矿端紧缩：全球铜精矿缺口扩大至42.6万吨（2024年前八月），现货TC跌至-14美元/吨，冶炼厂现金流亏损倒逼减产，预计Q2精炼铜减产15-20万吨。

需求结构性增长：电力投资（国内电网投资同比+8.7%）及新能源领域（光伏/风电年均增量60万吨）支撑需求，但地产疲弱拖累传统消费。

库存与成本压力

全球库存分化：LME库存高位回落（当前约25万吨），国内社库降至9.7万吨（周降幅5.2%），但海外COMEX库存攀升至9.2万吨。

冶炼成本倒挂：中国冶炼厂长协TC预计2025年重签至30-40美元/吨，部分企业或面临持续亏损，产能出清加速。

三、区域市场表现

重庆：铜价单日涨665元/吨，但下游畏高情绪浓厚，持货商捂货与抛货并存，市场零单成交几近停滞，观望主导。

上海：早间贸易商试探性挺价失败，午后部分平水铜贴水走扩至贴40元/吨，成交集中于贴60~贴30元/吨区间，交割前月差收敛预期支撑挺价。

华北（天津、山东）：贴水扩大至贴200元/吨，反映北方货源充裕但需求疲软，基建项目备货需求初现但压价明显。

四、短期预测与风险提示

价格走势：

利多因素：美元走弱、LME库存去化、国内“金三银四”旺季预期；

利空风险：现货高贴水压制盘面、冶炼亏损引发减产连锁反应。

区间预判：沪铜主力或维持78,000-79,500元/吨高位震荡，关注LME能否突破11,000美元/吨阻力。

升贴水趋势：

华东：交割前月差收窄或推动好铜升水上探50元/吨，平水铜贴水收窄至贴30元/吨；

北方：贴水或进一步扩大至贴250元/吨，吸引华东货源北上套利。

核心风险：

政策黑天鹅：美国关税落地时点及中国冶炼厂减产力度；

投机过热：COMEX非商业净多头持仓占比升至32%，警惕宏观数据扰动引发多头踩踏。

五、策略建议

下游企业：逢低锁定原料成本，优先采购贴水货源；

贸易商：关注跨区域套利（如北方贴水货源南运）、沪铜Back结构下的正套机会；

投资者：配置具备成本优势的矿企（如紫金矿业、洛阳钼业），规避高杠杆冶炼厂。

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2025年3月7日电解铜市场日报：铜价全线冲高触及年内峰值 区域分化与关税扰动引爆升贴水博弈

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2025年3月7日电解铜市场日报：铜价全线冲高触及年内峰值区域分化与关税扰动引爆升贴水博弈