2025年铜杆市场日报：铜价飙涨创年内新高区域分化与政策扰动引爆市场博弈

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年铜杆市场日报：铜价飙涨创年内新高区域分化与政策扰动引爆市场博弈

2025-03-07 15:40:19 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势：

国内现货价格：

上海1#电解铜现货成交价达78,780元/吨（+680元/吨），重庆、佛山等地同步攀升至78,800元/吨附近，创年内新高。

区域升贴水分化显著：华东好铜升水0-20元/吨，北方（天津、沈阳）贴水扩大至贴140-200元/吨，反映北方库存压力与需求疲软。

精废价差：

富宝数据显示，精废价差维持6,800元/吨高位，再生铜杆成本优势未有效转化为成交放量，原料跟涨压缩利润。

二、市场动态：

1. 华北片区

价格：精铜杆加工费450-500元/吨（持平），再生铜杆报价77,600元/吨（+150元/吨），电解铜贴水扩大至贴200元/吨。

成交：铜价突破79,000元/吨后终端点价骤降，中型铜杆厂单日成交仅200吨，再生杆低价货源零星成交。

2. 华东片区（长三角）

价格：精铜杆加工费380-550元/吨（微涨），再生杆送到价77,650-77,750元/吨（+100元/吨），好铜升水0-20元/吨。

成交：贸易商挺价失败，午后平水铜贴水走扩至贴40元/吨，下游压价接货，成交集中于贴60-30元/吨。

3. 华南片区（珠三角及江西）

价格：江西再生杆自提价77,400-77,500元/吨，广东送到价77,650-77,750元/吨，精废价差持平但替代效应弱化。

成交：精铜杆零单采购几近停滞，再生杆原料成本攀升，江西杆企控量出货（单日200吨以内）。

4. 西南片区

价格：精铜杆加工费600-700元/吨（区域最高），再生杆送到价77,600-77,700元/吨（+100元/吨）。

成交：长单主导市场，零单无人问津，再生杆原料采购难度增加，下游高价抵触。

三、后市预测：

1. 利多因素

政策与需求：国内“金三银四”消费旺季临近，电网改造、新能源订单释放支撑铜消费；美联储降息预期升温，美元走弱提振金融属性。

供应瓶颈：铜矿TC跌至-14美元/吨，冶炼亏损倒逼减产，叠加美国关税扰动（全球铜加速囤积美国），现货紧缺风险升温。

2. 风险与压制

高铜价反噬：终端畏高情绪抑制补库，精废杆价差扩大未有效刺激再生铜消费，下游加工企业面临亏损减产压力。

宏观不确定性：美国通胀及高利率环境或拖累经济，铜价短期受投机情绪驱动，需警惕库存变化及数据扰动。

3. 价格区间与技术面

短期目标：沪铜主力或维持78,000-79,500元/吨震荡，LME铜关注10,500美元/吨阻力位；若库存加速去化，沪铜有望突破80,000元/吨。

区域分化延续：北方贴水或扩大至贴250元/吨，吸引华东货源北上套利；华东好铜升水试探上挺至升50元/吨。

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2025年铜杆市场日报：铜价飙涨创年内新高 区域分化与政策扰动引爆市场博弈

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2025年铜杆市场日报：铜价飙涨创年内新高区域分化与政策扰动引爆市场博弈