2025年3月17日电解铜日报：铜价再破八万关口现货升水企稳上涨

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年3月17日电解铜日报：铜价再破八万关口现货升水企稳上涨

2025-03-17 17:01:31 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格行情

现货市场
- 上海地区：主流成交价 79,850-80,070元/吨，较上一交易日下跌50-140元/吨，其中上海华通报价79,955元/吨（日跌50元），长江现货1#铜价80,060元/吨（日跌140元）。
- 广东地区：佛山市场1#电解铜中间价79,850元/吨（日跌50元），现货升水0-50元/吨，下游采购以刚需为主。
- 北方市场：天津、沈阳等地贴水扩大至贴140-200元/吨，反映区域库存压力，成交集中于低价货源。
期货市场
- 沪铜主力（2504合约）：收于79,960元/吨（日涨80元），突破8万关口后高位震荡，LME铜价报9,793美元/吨，COMEX铜价4.88美元/磅，受矿端供应扰动及美元走软支撑。

二、库存动态

国内库存
- 社会库存：3月17日总库存降至34.68万吨（周环比降1.01万吨），其中上海库存23.03万吨（周降0.25万吨），广东库存4.88万吨（周降1.08万吨），江苏库存小幅增至6.01万吨。
- 交易所库存：上期所铜仓单减少11,904吨至25.55万吨，LME库存降至23.38万吨（周环比降3,400吨），反映海外需求回暖。
保税区库存：洋山铜溢价回落至162美元/吨，暗示保税区隐性库存可能累积，但尚未形成明显压力。

三、市场动态与驱动逻辑

供需矛盾
- 矿端紧缩：秘鲁Las Bambas铜矿减产70%，全球铜精矿缺口扩大至42.6万吨，现货TC/RC跌至-15.9美元/吨，冶炼厂亏损倒逼减产预期。
- 需求分化：新能源（光伏、电动车）订单稳定，但传统领域（地产、线缆）受高铜价抑制，华北地区基建项目备货初现但压价明显。
区域市场表现
- 华东：交割换月前月差收窄，持货商挺价与下游压价博弈加剧，平水铜贴水收窄至贴30-10元/吨，成交以贸易商补货为主。
- 华南：佛山升水企稳于0-50元/吨，库存去化叠加季节性消费回暖，低价货源吸引部分采购。
- 北方：天津贴水扩大至贴180-140元/吨，区域库存压力凸显，成交以低价刚需为主。

四、后市展望

短期（1-2周）
- 价格震荡偏强：矿端扰动及冶炼减产预期支撑铜价，但高价抑制下游需求，沪铜主力或维持78,000-80,500元/吨区间震荡，需关注LME能否突破11,000美元阻力。
- 升贴水博弈：交割换月后华东升水或上探50元/吨，北方贴水可能扩大至贴250元/吨，吸引跨区域套利。
中期风险
- 政策扰动：美国对进口铜加征关税预期升温，可能引发全球铜资源向美囤积；国内冶炼厂联合减产力度若不及预期，库存去化或放缓。
- 宏观变量：美联储降息节奏及美元走势将影响铜价上行空间，若3月降息落地或短期提振市场情绪。

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2025年3月17日电解铜日报：铜价再破八万关口 现货升水企稳上涨

一、价格行情

二、库存动态

三、市场动态与驱动逻辑

四、后市展望

有色金属报告推荐

2025年3月17日电解铜日报：铜价再破八万关口现货升水企稳上涨