2025年3月18日电解铜市场日报：电解铜价格冲高成交分化矿端扰动与区域升水承压博弈加剧

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年3月18日电解铜市场日报：电解铜价格冲高成交分化矿端扰动与区域升水承压博弈加剧

2025-03-18 16:54:34 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势

今日国内电解铜现货价格延续高位震荡，主流市场报价区间为 80,280-80,520元/吨，较前一交易日上涨 460-515元/吨。LME铜价受美元指数回落及矿端供应扰动支撑，盘中触及 9,793美元/吨，沪铜主力合约（2504）收于 80,370元/吨，涨幅0.63%。

二、区域市场分析

上海市场

价格：平水铜报价 80,435元/吨，升水 -30元/吨（较昨日扩大85.71%），好铜升水 150元/吨。

成交：早盘贸易商逢低补货推动升水短暂抬升，但铜价突破8万关口后下游采购意愿骤减，市场交投转淡，成交量不足1,000吨。

广东市场

价格：佛山市场均价 80,520元/吨，升水 50元/吨（较昨日缩窄16.67%）。

库存：周环比减少 0.64万吨至5.96万吨，但终端需求疲软，成交以长单交付为主，散单活跃度低。

华北市场

价格：天津平水铜贴水扩大至 -140元/吨，报价 80,280元/吨，区域库存压力凸显（天津港库存增至1.8万吨），成交集中于低价刚需，散单不足300吨。

西南市场

重庆市场：零单无人问津，主流成交价 79,400-79,700元/吨，下游企业资金压力显现，采购节奏放缓。

三、供需与库存动态

供应端扰动加剧

矿端紧张：秘鲁Las Bambas铜矿减产70%，全球铜精矿缺口扩大至 42.6万吨，现货TC/RC跌至 -15.9美元/吨，铜陵有色等企业计划减产应对成本压力。

政策影响：中国扩大冶炼厂免税出口许可，或加剧国内资源紧张；美国对铜进口加征关税预期升温，引发贸易商囤货行为。

需求分化明显

新能源领域：新能源汽车产销量同比增超90%，带动铜缆、电池用铜需求；

传统领域：建筑、家电需求疲软，华北基建项目备货压价明显，铜杆企业开工率降至68%。

库存去化加速

全球库存：LME库存降至 23.38万吨（周环比-3,400吨），SHFE仓单减少11,904吨至25.55万吨；

国内社会库存：总量降至 34.68万吨（周环比-1.01万吨），上海、广东分别贡献0.62万吨、1.08万吨降幅。

四、市场驱动与风险因素

宏观政策：

美联储降息预期升温（美国2月CPI同比2.8%），美元指数回落至104下方，提振铜金融属性；

国内M2增速11.6%但M1仅5.9%，政策传导滞后压制需求预期。

资金博弈：

沪铜持仓增至45万手，多空分歧加剧；投机资金押注供应缺口，但产业套保盘压制上方空间。

五、后市展望与策略建议

短期（1周）：铜价或维持 80,000-81,000元/吨区间震荡，LME若突破 10,200美元/吨或打开上行空间，需警惕高铜价抑制下游采购的负反馈。

中期（1个月）：

上行风险：矿端减产扩大、国内政策刺激超预期；

下行风险：美国关税政策落地、冶炼厂减产不及预期。

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2025年3月18日电解铜市场日报：电解铜价格冲高成交分化 矿端扰动与区域升水承压博弈加剧

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2025年3月18日电解铜市场日报：电解铜价格冲高成交分化矿端扰动与区域升水承压博弈加剧