2025年3月19日铝土矿市场分析

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年3月19日铝土矿市场分析

2025-03-19 16:46:47 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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宏观环境与市场动态
全球宏观经济格局呈现分化态势。海外方面，美国贸易保护政策持续加码，叠加惠誉将 2025 年美国经济增长预期下调至 1.7%，并指出关税可能推升通胀，导致美联储降息计划推迟至四季度，利空因素对市场信心形成压制。国内政策则持续发力，三部门推动高排放货车报废更新，叠加 1-2 月全社会用电量同比增长 1.3%，显示国内需求端韧性，内外经济环境差异显著。

产业链基本面分析
铝产业链呈现结构性分化特征。供应端，2 月中国铝矿砂进口量同比激增 28.3%，港口库存持续堆积，供应宽松格局延续。氧化铝市场受新产能集中释放影响，一季度几内亚铝土矿发运量稳定攀升，推动国内 460 万吨新产能落地，叠加海外印尼、印度产量增长，全球供应过剩压力加剧。国内冶金级氧化铝库存不断累积，现货市场悲观情绪浓厚，贸易商及生产企业出货意愿增强，市场供需失衡局面凸显。

需求端，电解铝表现相对强劲。国内 “以旧换新” 政策及新能源领域需求回暖，带动铝下游加工企业开工率回升至 61.62%。库存数据显示，广东、无锡及巩义三地铝锭库存微降 0.15 万吨至 71.94 万吨，LME 铝库存亦减少 0.82%，“金三银四” 传统旺季效应逐步显现，供需结构持续优化，支撑电解铝市场保持相对强势。

期货与现货市场表现
期货市场上，氧化铝主力合约延续弱势运行，市场对供应过剩的担忧加剧，叠加交割库仓单持续增加至 29.49 万吨，进一步压制期价走势。电解铝期货则受需求端支撑，短期维持震荡偏强格局，市场对旺季需求的乐观预期为价格提供重要支撑。

后市展望
机构普遍认为，氧化铝市场短期内仍将受制于供应过剩与成本下移，价格或围绕成本线震荡寻底。而电解铝在需求韧性与库存去化支撑下，中长期看多逻辑未变，但需警惕短期调整风险。随着几内亚矿石发运旺季来临，铝土矿供应宽松格局或延续，氧化铝成本仍有下行空间；电解铝则需关注旺季去库速度及政策落地效果，短期高位震荡，中长期重心有望逐步抬升。

综合来看，当前铝市呈现 “铝强氧弱” 格局，氧化铝短期偏弱运行，电解铝震荡偏强，中长期需关注供需格局变化及政策导向对价格的影响。

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2025年3月19日铝土矿市场分析

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