2025年3月20日铜杆市场日报：沪铜主力突破8.1万关口矿端扰动叠加旺季交投活跃

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年3月20日铜杆市场日报：沪铜主力突破8.1万关口矿端扰动叠加旺季交投活跃

2025-03-20 17:01:03 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格与成交动态

精铜杆价格今日主流精铜杆报价区间为 77,470-77,680元/吨，较前一交易日小幅上涨约0.2%。沪铜主力合约延续强势，收于 81,230元/吨，涨幅0.72%；LME期铜同步攀升至 9,997.5美元/吨，逼近万元关口。市场现货升贴水小幅回升，主流平水铜贴水收窄至贴120-贴170元/吨，显示现货供需边际改善。
再生铜杆价格再生铜杆价格区间为 76,400-76,700元/吨，与精铜杆价差维持约1,000元/吨。再生铜原料供应持续紧张，上游废铜贸易商捂货惜售情绪明显，下游铜厂采购以刚需为主，交投氛围谨慎。
市场成交表现精铜杆零单成交热度偏低，下游线缆及家电企业普遍以消耗库存为主，高铜价抑制补库意愿，仅部分刚需订单支撑成交。再生铜杆出货不畅，厂家报价较贸易商货源偏高，叠加原料采购难度大，整体成交推进缓慢。

二、原料市场与供应端分析

电解铜上海市场1#电解铜现货成交价报 76,895元/吨，较昨日下跌150元/吨。进口亏损扩大至 700元/吨，抑制海外货源流入，国内库存持续去化，沪铜仓单降至 158,495吨，环比减少4,104吨。
铜精矿与冶炼压力 **铜精矿加工费（TC）**维持 -15.83美元/吨低位，矿端短缺压力未解。国内冶炼厂检修预期升温，3月电解铜产量或为年内峰值，后续产能收缩风险支撑铜价。
海外扰动美国对铜进口关税政策的不确定性加剧市场博弈，COMEX与LME铜价差扩大至 800-1,000美元/吨，刺激跨市套利交易活跃。刚果（金）铜矿供应扰动及巴拿马铜矿复产传闻并存，加剧供应端波动预期。

三、需求与库存变化

国内需求 “金三银四”传统旺季效应逐步显现，电力及新能源领域订单回暖，但高铜价对中小型线缆企业开工形成压制。SMM调研显示，本周精铜杆企业开工率环比微增，但仍低于预期水平。
全球库存去化 LME铜库存降至 225,175吨，连续两周加速去库；国内主流地区电解铜社会库存环比下降 1.25万吨至 35.55万吨，现货升水回升反映供需趋紧。

四、后市展望

短期走势铜价在供应约束及宏观政策博弈下维持高位震荡，沪铜主力合约支撑位上移至 80,000元/吨，上方压力关注 82,000元/吨。LME铜价或测试 10,000美元/吨心理关口。
风险提示
- 政策风险：美国关税政策落地节奏及刚果（金）地缘冲突可能引发供应端超预期波动。
- 需求韧性：国内下游对高价接受度及海外经济衰退预期对远期需求的抑制仍需警惕。
- 库存变化：显性库存去化速度及隐性库存释放节奏或扰动市场情绪。

总结：今日铜杆市场呈现“强预期、弱现实”格局，高铜价抑制短期成交，但供应端矛盾及旺季需求支撑价格中枢上移。建议下游企业逢低锁定远期订单，关注海外政策及库存边际变化。

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2025年3月20日铜杆市场日报：沪铜主力突破8.1万关口 矿端扰动叠加旺季交投活跃

一、价格与成交动态

二、原料市场与供应端分析

三、需求与库存变化

四、后市展望

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2025年3月20日铜杆市场日报：沪铜主力突破8.1万关口矿端扰动叠加旺季交投活跃