基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

2025年3月21日电解铜市场日报：供应紧张与需求博弈加剧，铜价高位震荡后或再攀高峰

2025-03-21 23:08:08 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势
今日沪铜主力合约收盘价为80,610元/吨，较上一交易日下跌0.91%，但日内仍维持高位震荡。现货市场方面，上海1#电解铜均价报81,440元/吨，较前日上涨865元/吨，广东、华通等地区现货报价亦同步上行，市场呈现“期货贴水、现货升水”结构。国际铜价表现强劲，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜价突破5.12美元/磅，创年内新高，与伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价溢价扩大至1,344美元/吨。

二、供需基本面

供应端：
- 国内冶炼厂因铜精矿加工费（TC/RC）跌至-15美元/吨，叠加亏损压力，部分企业开启减产或延长检修计划，如铜陵有色47万吨/年产能冶炼厂减产。
- 废铜供应紧张进一步抑制电解铜产量，部分矿产铜企业因亏损降低负荷。
- 全球库存持续去化，LME铜库存降至22.3万吨（7月中旬以来最低），COMEX铜库存减少7.5%至9.3万吨。
需求端：
- 消费旺季背景下，空调、汽车、光伏等终端行业排产数据向好，但高价铜对下游采购形成抑制，部分企业转向低价订单。
- 现货市场成交分化，投机买盘活跃，但下游畏高情绪明显，整体成交以刚需为主。

三、政策与宏观影响

美国关税政策：特朗普宣布对铜征收25%关税，引发全球铜供应链震荡，LME铜加速流向美国，加剧全球供应紧张预期。
美联储政策：3月利率决议符合预期，美元指数维持低位，为铜价提供支撑。
国内宏观：两会后政策刺激预期升温，叠加电网投资、新能源装机等需求增量，支撑中长期铜价。

四、未来展望
短期来看，供应端减产、库存去化及美国关税政策引发的套利交易仍将支撑铜价偏强运行，但需警惕高价对下游需求的负反馈。机构预测沪铜续涨空间或扩大至8.25万元/吨，建议关注库存去化速度及宏观政策落地节奏。中长期需关注冶炼厂检修规模扩大后的供应恢复情况，以及全球经济复苏对实际需求的拉动。

风险提示：

高价铜可能抑制下游消费，需警惕需求不及预期风险。
美国关税政策不确定性及美元指数波动或加剧市场波动。

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​2025年3月21日电解铜市场日报：供应紧张与需求博弈加剧，铜价高位震荡后或再攀高峰

2025年3月21日电解铜市场日报：供应紧张与需求博弈加剧，铜价高位震荡后或再攀高峰