2025年3月24日电解铜市场日报：价格普跌但升贴水分化下游畏高情绪压制成交回暖

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年3月24日电解铜市场日报：价格普跌但升贴水分化下游畏高情绪压制成交回暖

2025-03-24 14:59:39 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格综述

上海市场：1#电解铜现货成交价报80,955元/吨，较上一交易日下跌530元/吨。升贴水方面，好铜升水0-10元/吨（环比+15元/吨），湿法铜贴水110-60元/吨（环比+5元/吨）。

广东市场：截至3月24日11:00，佛山市场1#电解铜中间价81,170元/吨，环比下跌580元/吨；现货升贴水升160-260元/吨（环比下跌40元/吨）。

华北市场：

沈阳：电解铜价80870元/吨；

天津：电解铜价80760元/吨；

山东：电解铜价80840元/吨。

重庆市场：电解铜中间价81,025元/吨（环比-565元/吨），供应商主流升贴水均价升65元/吨（环比下调）。

二、分市场供需与成交

1. 上海市场

供需动态：铜价日内低开高走，交投重心下移，但现货升水小幅回升。早盘持货商试探性上调报价，但下游接货情绪有限，成交僵持；午盘后主流品牌报价走低至贴水30元/吨，好铜降至升水10元/吨，成交以贴水区间低价为主。

市场情绪：铜价下跌刺激部分下游逢低补库，但高铜价抑制需求释放，持货商挺价惜售情绪仍存。

成交特点：主流平水铜货源偏紧，贴水成交集中在贴40-20元/吨。

2. 广东市场

供需动态：现货库存小幅去库，流通货源较上周增加但仍偏紧。早间贸易商平水铜报价升水160-180元/吨，但下游对高升水接受度低，成交清淡。

成交表现：成交升贴水回落至升160元/吨左右，市场零单采购以刚需为主，整体交投疲软。

3. 华北市场

供需动态：铜价下跌叠加现货升水上涨，持货商挺价出货，但下游畏高情绪浓厚。

成交特点：以低价成交和长单提货为主，天津、山东贴水幅度较大，抑制实际采购需求。

4. 重庆市场

成交特点：铜价回调幅度不及下游预期，大型铜厂仍以长单提货为主，零单采购零星且量小（50-100吨）。

升贴水分化：持货商报价差异较大，综合成交升水50-80元/吨，市场情绪谨慎。

三、市场情绪与核心矛盾

价格博弈加剧：铜价高位回调后，下游压价采购与持货商挺价惜售形成拉锯，尤其上海、广东市场货源偏紧支撑升水。

消费抑制明显：高铜价背景下，下游加工企业补库意愿疲软，仅维持刚需采购，长单提货占比显著。

区域分化延续：华北、重庆市场贴水幅度较大，反映区域供需结构差异；广东高升水因库存去化短期难改。

四、后市预测

价格走势：短期铜价或维持震荡，宏观面关注美元指数及美联储政策预期，国内关注旺季需求兑现情况。

升贴水趋势：

上海：月尾资金压力下现货升水或承压，但低库存支撑下预计贴水幅度有限；

广东：若到货量增加，升水可能回落至升100-150元/吨；

华北：贴水格局难改，天津、山东贴水或持稳于贴150-100元/吨；

重庆：长单主导下，升水或维持在50-80元/吨区间。

核心变量：

库存变化：若国内显性库存持续去化，或刺激升水反弹；

下游消费：关注4月传统旺季订单能否释放，若消费不及预期，铜价或承压下行。

风险提示：美联储加息预期反复、国内政策落地节奏、海外矿山供应扰动。

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2025年3月24日电解铜市场日报：价格普跌但升贴水分化 下游畏高情绪压制成交回暖

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2025年3月24日电解铜市场日报：价格普跌但升贴水分化下游畏高情绪压制成交回暖