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新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

2025 年 3 月 24 日铝棒市场日报

2025-03-24 16:28:21 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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近期铝棒市场呈现供需两端积极调整态势。据行业数据显示，3 月 20 日国内主流消费地铝棒库存降至 29.4 万吨，较前一周去库 1.2 万吨，延续去化趋势，反映下游需求持续回暖。同期电解铝锭社会库存亦下降 3.1 万吨至 83.8 万吨，显示产业链整体库存压力有所缓解。

从供应端来看，3 月国内电解铝运行产能增至 4384 万吨，产量预计达 370.5 万吨，环比增长 10.8%，铝水比回升至 74%，表明铝液直接用于加工的比例显著提升，对铝棒生产形成结构性支撑。这一变化得益于行业对资源利用效率的优化，以及铝加工产业链的协同升级。

需求端表现强劲，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率环比上涨 0.8 个百分点至 61.6%，延续旺季复苏势头。终端领域中，新能源汽车市场成为重要增长点，3 月 1-16 日全国乘用车新能源零售及批发量同比分别增长 41% 和 43%，对铝棒等轻量化材料需求形成有力拉动。此外，基建投资累计同比增长 5.6%，制造业投资增长 9%，进一步夯实了铝棒消费的宏观经济基础。

市场分析指出，当前铝棒市场受国内需求回暖与供应结构调整双重驱动。在供应端逐渐触及产能上限的背景下，下游消费的复苏为市场提供了关键支撑。随着铝水转化比例走高，铝棒近月结构持续走强，显示市场对短期供需关系的乐观预期。未来需重点关注库存去化速度及终端消费的持续性，以进一步判断市场走势。

总体而言，铝棒市场在供需两端的积极作用下，呈现出稳中向好的发展态势，新能源汽车等领域的需求增长或将成为行业长期发展的重要引擎。

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