2025年3月25日电解铜市场日报：高位震荡延续政策与需求博弈加剧

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年3月25日电解铜市场日报：高位震荡延续政策与需求博弈加剧

2025-03-25 16:39:35 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势

今日国内电解铜市场价格呈现高位震荡格局。上海有色网（SMM）数据显示，SMM1#电解铜现货均价报78,790元/吨，较前一交易日上涨470元/吨，升贴水区间维持在贴水30元/吨至升水20元/吨。广东南储现货市场1#电解铜报价为81,645元/吨，市场成交活跃度受高价位影响有所分化。国际市场方面，美元指数波动及海外铜矿供应预期变化对铜价形成短期支撑。

二、区域市场动态

1. 上海市场：早盘主流品牌报价如鲁方、JCC等货源升水0-10元/吨，平水铜品牌如金冠、大江PC贴水20元/吨附近。日内铜价持续攀升，下游企业观望情绪浓厚，现货成交清淡。午后持货商为促成交下调报价，平水铜贴水扩大至30-50元/吨，好铜品牌升水收窄至0-20元/吨，贸易商间交投为主。

2. 佛山市场：现货升水受货源紧张支撑，平水铜报价升水100-150元/吨，但高铜价抑制下游采购，成交以刚需补库为主。市场流通货源有限，持货商挺价意愿较强。

3. 天津及重庆市场：华北地区现货供应正常，下游畏高情绪显著，长单谈判主导市场；西南地区铜厂维持长单采购策略，现货零单成交稀少，库存压力暂未显现。

三、库存与供需分析

国内电解铜社会库存延续去库趋势，但去化速度放缓。3月20日数据显示，国内主要消费地库存总量为34.34万吨，较前一周减少0.95万吨，其中广东、江苏地区贡献主要降幅，上海库存略有回升。保税区库存累计10.85万吨，较前一周增加0.49万吨，反映进口窗口持续亏损下，海外货源流入受限。

供应端方面，国内冶炼企业检修计划逐步落地，叠加原料铜精矿加工费（TC）维持低位（当前约-15.83美元/吨），短期电解铜产量或受抑制。需求端，铜杆企业开工率因高价承压，上周开工率69.93%，环比下降5.21%，但光伏、新能源等领域需求韧性仍存。

四、机构观点

广州期货指出，宏观层面，美国关税政策不确定性及国内稳增长政策落地预期形成博弈，短期铜价或在81,000-83,000元/吨区间震荡。产业面，原料短缺与库存去化构成支撑，但下游消费旺季表现不及预期或制约涨幅。

冠通期货认为，当前市场处于“强预期、弱现实”阶段，铜价高位回调风险累积。建议关注下游补库节奏及海外铜矿供应扰动，短期操作以区间交易为主。

五、明日展望

预计短期内电解铜价格将维持高位震荡，市场焦点转向下周美联储政策动向及国内需求数据验证。现货升水或因库存低位及贸易商挺价意愿延续，区间运行于贴水50元/吨至升水0元/吨。下游企业可逢低按需采购，规避价格剧烈波动风险。

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2025年3月25日电解铜市场日报：高位震荡延续 政策与需求博弈加剧

一、价格走势

二、区域市场动态

三、库存与供需分析

四、机构观点

五、明日展望

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2025年3月25日电解铜市场日报：高位震荡延续政策与需求博弈加剧