2025年3月28日电解铜市场日报：铜价高位震荡承压供应紧缺与关税预期博弈加剧

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年3月28日电解铜市场日报：铜价高位震荡承压供应紧缺与关税预期博弈加剧

2025-03-28 16:20:35 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势与市场情绪

铜价波动加剧今日沪铜主力合约收于80810元/吨，较前日下跌0.93%；LME铜价同步回落至9846.5美元/吨，跌幅0.61%。市场对特朗普政府可能于4月2日宣布的铜相关加征关税政策存在担忧，导致部分多头提前离场，铜价波动率显著提升。现货进口亏损扩大至650元/吨，抑制进口铜流入，国内现货升贴水报价重心缓慢抬升，但成交重心受期货波动影响较大。
区域市场表现分化
- 上海市场：主流品牌平水铜报价贴20元/吨，持货商挺价情绪较强，但下游畏高情绪抑制成交活跃度。
- 广东市场：佛山地区现货升水30~80元/吨，库存高企但流通货源有限，下游刚需采购为主。
- 华北市场：天津地区因铜价高位震荡，部分中小型下游企业暂停接货，中大型企业按需采购，整体交投冷清。

二、供需基本面分析

供应端压力缓解
- 印尼政府为自由港印尼公司新增100万吨铜精矿出口配额，叠加智利Collahuasi铜矿产量回升，铜矿供应偏紧格局边际改善。国内3月电解铜预计产量111.84万吨，环比增长7.4%。
- 国内铜精矿港口库存周环比下降5.4万吨至61.4万吨，冶炼厂原料备货需求仍存，但副产品硫酸价格走高支撑冶炼利润。
需求端回暖但分化明显
- 传统领域：电力投资与家电补贴政策支撑需求韧性，空调行业3月排产同比增长10.6%，但房地产用铜需求仍疲弱。
- 新兴领域：新能源汽车前2月累计销量183.5万辆（同比+52%），但加拿大加征关税对出口形成压制，光伏需求增速边际放缓。
- 加工企业开工率：铜管行业开工率环比提升12.05个百分点至82.33%，漆包线行业旺季特征显著，铜线缆企业开工率72.63%（环比+8.31%）。

三、库存与资金动态

全球显性库存拐点显现截至3月28日，LME铜库存周环比下降1.68万吨至24.42万吨，上期所仓单减少1.01万吨至15.17万吨；国内社会库存36万吨，较峰值下降0.8万吨，去库节奏符合旺季预期。
资金博弈加剧沪铜主力合约持仓量增至17.3万手，市场对关税政策及美联储降息预期存在分歧，短期多空资金拉锯明显。

四、后市展望与风险提示

核心驱动因素
- 政策风险：4月2日美国对华关税政策落地前，铜价或延续高波动，若加税落地可能引发跨市场套利及反套头寸增加。
- 金融属性：美元走弱及降息预期支撑铜价中期上行趋势，LME铜价中枢或上移至9500-11000美元/吨。
风险提示
- 警惕铜矿供应扰动（如智利Collahuasi产量波动）、海外库存逼仓风险及下游高铜价负反馈传导。
- 关注国内再生铜替代效应（精废差收窄至1320元/吨）对电解铜消费的分流影响。

总结

今日电解铜市场呈现“宏观扰动加剧、供需边际改善、库存去化启动”特征。短期建议关注关税政策落地前后的跨期套利机会，中期维持逢低布局多单策略，需防范政策预期差带来的回调风险。

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2025年3月28日电解铜市场日报：铜价高位震荡承压 供应紧缺与关税预期博弈加剧

一、价格走势与市场情绪

二、供需基本面分析

三、库存与资金动态

四、后市展望与风险提示

总结

有色金属报告推荐

2025年3月28日电解铜市场日报：铜价高位震荡承压供应紧缺与关税预期博弈加剧