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2025 年 3 月 28 日铝棒日报：加工费冲高回落市场交投持续低迷

2025-03-28 16:37:30 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、库存延续去化增速有所放缓

国内铝棒库存延续去化趋势，但节奏较前期有所放缓。截至 3 月 28 日，广东、无锡两地铝棒库存合计 20.73 万吨，较前一日减少 0.18 万吨。其中，广东地区库存 16.10 万吨，无锡地区 4.63 万吨。尽管去库持续，但下游需求复苏力度不足，导致库存降幅有限，市场对传统旺季消费预期的兑现仍存疑虑。

二、加工费冲高回落市场成交低迷

受铝价波动影响，国内铝棒加工费呈现冲高回落态势。佛山、无锡、南昌等地加工费早盘尝试上调，但终端采购意愿低迷，实际成交清淡。贸易商为促出货，午后部分规格加工费出现二次下调，市场观望情绪浓厚。下游企业普遍采取按需采购策略，对高价资源接受度较低，整体成交进度缓慢，仅少数低价资源达成零星交易。

三、供需双增格局显现成本端压力传导

供应端方面，国内电解铝运行产能受限于政策天花板，增量空间有限，主要以置换产能为主。需求端呈现结构性分化：工业型材、新能源汽车等领域需求表现稳健，而建筑型材、铝线缆等传统板块复苏乏力。成本端，氧化铝现货价格持续走弱，叠加能源价格波动，冶炼利润有所承压，但整体仍处于高位。

四、后市展望：短期震荡调整关注需求兑现

短期内，铝价受库存去化不及预期及成本支撑减弱影响，或延续弱势震荡。加工费将围绕成本线波动，企业需加强库存管理与成本控制。随着 4 月传统消费旺季临近，终端需求的实际复苏情况成为关键变量。若需求兑现不及预期，市场或面临供过于求压力；反之，若需求超预期回暖，铝价及加工费有望迎来阶段性修复。行业参与者需密切关注库存变化、政策动向及下游开工数据，灵活调整经营策略。

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2025 年 3 月 28 日铝棒日报：加工费冲高回落 市场交投持续低迷

一、库存延续去化 增速有所放缓

二、加工费冲高回落 市场成交低迷

三、供需双增格局显现 成本端压力传导

四、后市展望：短期震荡调整 关注需求兑现

2025 年 3 月 28 日铝棒日报：加工费冲高回落市场交投持续低迷

一、库存延续去化增速有所放缓

二、加工费冲高回落市场成交低迷

三、供需双增格局显现成本端压力传导

四、后市展望：短期震荡调整关注需求兑现