2025年3月31日电解铜市场日报

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年3月31日电解铜市场日报

2025-04-01 10:03:48 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势：宏观扰动主导，铜价延续震荡

现货价格：
- 上海市场：1#电解铜现货均价80,155元/吨，较前一日下跌490元/吨，升贴水区间收窄至贴水30元/吨至升水20元/吨，市场成交以贸易商为主，下游补库谨慎。
- 广东市场：现货均价80,180元/吨，下跌540元/吨，升贴水回落至贴水20元/吨至升水80元/吨，区域价差扩大，反映华南地区库存压力增加。
- 国际市场：LME铜价9,846.5美元/吨，COMEX铜价受关税预期支撑维持高位，两地价差仍超1,000美元/吨，刺激跨市场套利交易。
期货市场：
- 沪铜主力合约收于80,440元/吨，日内波动加剧，多空围绕8万关口博弈，持仓量增至17.3万手，市场对4月2日美国关税政策落地预期升。

二、库存动态：社库止降回升，保税区持续累库

国内社会库存：
- 总库存33.94万吨，周环比增0.29万吨，区域分化显著：
  - 上海：库存22.15万吨（周降0.91万吨），货源到港偏少叠加下游节前补库支撑去库；
  - 广东：库存5.17万吨（周增1.02万吨），冶炼厂发货增加导致累库；
  - 江苏：库存6.02万吨（周增0.26万吨），进口铜清关量回升。
保税区库存：
- 增至11.99万吨，周环比增0.34万吨，主因进口亏损扩大至650元/吨，部分冶炼厂持续出口。
海外库存：
- LME库存降至21.29万吨（周降5.8万吨），COMEX库存9.45万吨，美国港口囤货潮加剧非美地区供应紧张。

三、供需分析：矿端矛盾未解，消费分化加剧

供应端：
- 铜矿紧张：进口铜精矿TC报价维持-15.83美元/吨低位，智利Altonorte冶炼厂不可抗力事件加剧供应担忧，国内冶炼厂检修计划或于二季度集中释放。
- 再生铜补充有限：精废价差收窄至1,320元/吨，再生铜替代效应减弱，江西、河南等地废铜成交低迷。
需求端：
- 传统领域：电力及家电行业订单稳中有升，但高铜价抑制中小型线缆企业采购；
- 新能源领域：新能源汽车前2月销量同比增52%，光伏铜杆加工费维持875元/吨，但组件价格战传导至原料端，部分项目采购延后。

四、宏观因素：关税与政策博弈

美国关税政策：
- 特朗普政府或于4月2日宣布对进口铜加征25%关税，贸易商加速向美国港口转移货源，预计超50万吨铜正流向北美。
国内政策支撑：
- 商务部推动汽车消费改革试点及离境退税政策，基建投资提速对冲地产疲软，但微观主体信心不足制约复苏斜率。
美元与通胀：
- 美联储官员警示贸易壁垒加剧输入型通胀，美元指数高位震荡，铜价金融属性承压但商品属性支撑仍存。

五、后市展望：震荡偏强，警惕政策落地波动

短期（1周内）：
- 清明假期前下游补库或支撑铜价企稳，沪铜参考区间79,800-81,500元/吨，LME关注9,680-9,980美元/吨区间突破。
中期（1个月）：
- 若关税落地后未超预期，铜价或回调测试支撑；反之，矿端矛盾及国内政策发力或推动价格缓涨，关注8.3万-8.6万元/吨阻力。
风险提示：
- 关税政策落地节奏、LME库存转移速度、国内冶炼厂检修规模及新能源需求兑现程度。

总结：今日电解铜市场呈现“宏观扰动主导价格、区域库存分化、供需矛盾深化”特征。建议投资者关注4月初美国关税政策落地后的跨市套利机会，下游企业可逢低锁定原料成本，警惕高波动率下的仓位风险。

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2025年3月31日电解铜市场日报

一、价格走势：宏观扰动主导，铜价延续震荡

二、库存动态：社库止降回升，保税区持续累库

三、供需分析：矿端矛盾未解，消费分化加剧

四、宏观因素：关税与政策博弈

五、后市展望：震荡偏强，警惕政策落地波动

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