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第二届攀西矿产资源会议固态电池产业发展报告（2025） 2025 先进涂层材料及表面处理技术研讨会钨产业发展报告（2025）硒产业发展报告（2025）锌产业发展报告（2025）

2025年4月3日电解铜市场日报

2025-04-03 17:11:26 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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1. 价格走势

全国均价：卓创资讯数据显示，4月3日电解铜全国主流市场均价为 79,015元/吨，较前一日下跌1,060元/吨（跌幅1.32%），七日均价为80,782.5元/吨。
区域价格：
- 上海市场：1#电解铜现货均价79,000-79,100元/吨，跌幅达1,050元/吨。
- 广东市场：1#电解铜不含税价74,000元/吨（均价），较前一日下跌900元/吨。
- 佛山地区：含税价79,050元/吨，不含税价74,000元/吨，分别下跌1,050元/吨和900元/吨。

2. 期货市场

沪铜主力合约：4月3日收于79,650元/吨（跌0.83%），持仓量增至17.3万手，市场关注美国关税政策落地预期。
LME铜价：国际市场价格为9,690美元/吨（跌0.96%），与COMEX价差超1,000美元/吨，刺激跨市套利交易。

3. 库存动态

国内社会库存：总库存33.94万吨，周环比增0.29万吨，但区域分化明显。上海库存因到港减少下降0.91万吨，广东库存因冶炼厂发货增加上升1.02万吨。
保税区库存：增至11.99万吨（周增0.34万吨），进口亏损扩大至650元/吨抑制清关。
LME库存：降至21.29万吨（周降5.8万吨），美国囤货导致非美地区供应紧张。

4. 供需分析

供应端：铜矿紧张持续，进口铜精矿加工费（TC）维持-15.83美元/吨低位，智利Altonorte冶炼厂不可抗力事件加剧担忧；再生铜补充有限，精废价差收窄至1,320元/吨。
需求端：电力及家电订单稳中有升，但高铜价抑制中小线缆企业采购；新能源领域（如新能源汽车）需求强劲，但光伏组件价格战传导至原料端，部分项目延后。

5. 宏观与政策影响

美国关税政策：特朗普政府或于4月2日宣布对进口铜加征25%关税，贸易商加速向美国转移货源，预计超50万吨铜流向北美。
国内政策：商务部推动汽车消费改革及基建投资对冲地产疲软，但微观主体信心不足制约复苏斜率。

6. 后市展望

短期（1周内）：清明假期前下游补库或支撑铜价企稳，沪铜参考区间79,800-81,500元/吨，LME关注9,680-9,980美元/吨。
风险提示：关税政策落地节奏、LME库存转移速度及国内冶炼厂检修规模。

总结

今日电解铜市场呈现“价格普跌、库存分化、供需矛盾深化”特征，宏观扰动（尤其是美国关税政策）主导市场情绪。建议投资者关注政策落地后的跨市套利机会，下游企业可逢低锁定成本，但需警惕高波动风险。

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[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 48 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000447s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 49 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000401s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 50 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000425s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000530s ]

2.565151s

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