2025年4月7日铝土矿市场分析：进口稳国产跌，非主流矿成新焦点

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年4月7日铝土矿市场分析：进口稳国产跌，非主流矿成新焦点

2025-04-07 17:29:21 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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4 月 7 日铝土矿市场呈现进口矿稳中有降、国产矿加速下行的分化格局，氧化铝厂在成本压力下积极寻求非主流来源矿石，但短期采购突破仍需时间。以下从市场动态、供需矛盾及未来趋势三个维度展开分析：

一、市场动态：进口矿持稳与国产矿下跌的双向分化

1. 进口矿价格窄幅波动，几内亚矿石仍是市场焦点
几内亚铝土矿 CIF 价格近期出现小幅回落，但较年初高点仅回落约 20%，跌幅显著小于国产矿。这一现象与几内亚矿企让价意愿低密切相关 —— 其完全成本支撑较强，且雨季（6-9 月）临近，部分矿山开始控制发运节奏，进一步延缓了价格下行速度。

2. 国产矿价格加速下跌，库存压力凸显
山西、河南国产铝土矿价格本周出现明显下跌，主因国内矿山复产超预期。3 月国内铝土矿产量同比增长 13%，叠加进口矿到港量增加，港口库存攀升至历史高位。山西地区氧化铝厂原料库存普遍维持在 1 个月以上，对国产矿采购积极性降至冰点。

二、供需矛盾：氧化铝厂的成本困境与采购策略调整

1. 成本倒挂加剧，倒逼采购结构转型
当前使用几内亚矿的氧化铝企业普遍面临成本压力，部分企业开始尝试使用非主流来源的三水铝石矿。例如，云南地区氧化铝厂对巴西、印度尼西亚三水矿的采购报价较几内亚矿低 5-10 美元 / 吨，但这类矿石铝硅比普遍低于 4.5，需配套高温溶出工艺，改造成本较高且物流周期延长，实际性价比优势有限。

2. 非主流矿石采购遇阻，谈判陷入僵局
目前主流成交障碍集中在三个方面：

质量争议：印度尼西亚部分矿山提供的矿石铝含量不足 50%，且含有 0.8% 以上的钛杂质，超出氧化铝厂质量标准。

物流瓶颈：巴西至中国的海运成本较高，抵消了矿石价差优势。

供应稳定性：非主流矿商多为中小型企业，单次供货量仅 1-2 万吨，难以满足大型氧化铝厂月均 50 万吨的采购需求。

三、未来趋势：价格下行周期中的结构性机会

1. 进口矿价格仍有下跌空间
随着几内亚 ALUFER 矿业公司 Bel Air 项目产能提升至 1000 万吨 / 年，叠加澳大利亚新增 100-200 万吨供应，二季度进口矿市场将进入供应放量期。预计几内亚矿价可能下探至 80 美元 / 吨，对应氧化铝成本下移。

2. 国产矿价格或加速触底
国内铝土矿库存已接近 1.5 亿吨，远超历史同期水平。若 4 月国产矿产量维持高位，价格可能跌破 500 元 / 吨（折干基），倒逼山西、河南高成本矿山减产。

3. 非主流矿石采购或出现突破
随着氧化铝厂亏损扩大，部分企业可能接受非主流矿石的质量妥协。例如，广西某氧化铝厂计划将三水矿配比从 10% 提升至 30%，并配套新建高温溶出车间。若谈判顺利，二季度或出现首批 5-10 万吨的非主流矿成交。

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2025年4月7日铝土矿市场分析：进口稳国产跌，非主流矿成新焦点

一、市场动态：进口矿持稳与国产矿下跌的双向分化

二、供需矛盾：氧化铝厂的成本困境与采购策略调整

三、未来趋势：价格下行周期中的结构性机会

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