2025年4月9日电解铜市场日报：宏观扰动持续区域成交分化加剧

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年4月9日电解铜市场日报：宏观扰动持续区域成交分化加剧

2025-04-09 16:52:28 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势

全国市场概况 今日电解铜价格延续震荡走势，区域间涨跌互现。受美联储鹰派言论及美国关税政策预期影响，沪铜主力合约日内波动加剧，最终收于74,800-75,200元/吨区间，较前一交易日微跌0.5%
。
区域价格表现
- 上海市场：1#电解铜现货成交价74,850元/吨（跌150元/吨），好铜升水80-120元/吨，平水铜升水30-60元/吨。贸易商挺价意愿强，但高价成交有限。
- 广东市场：佛山1#电解铜中间价74,600元/吨（跌200元/吨），升水50-90元/吨。库存小幅去化，下游刚需采购为主。
- 华北市场：天津平水铜贴水20元/吨至升水40元/吨，山东升水60-100元/吨。供应偏紧支撑升水，但成交清淡。
- 重庆市场：中间价74,700元/吨（跌180元/吨），升水150-200元/吨。长单点价活跃，零单成交回暖。

二、市场交易情况

上海市场
- 早盘受外盘拖累低开，持货商试探性上调升水，但下游畏高情绪浓厚，成交僵持。午后随着盘面回升，部分低价平水铜品牌（如JCC、ISA）成交于升水30元/吨。
广东市场
- 库存降至年内低位，持货商惜售情绪明显，升水企稳。但终端线缆企业仅按需采购，整体成交清淡。
华北市场
- 炼厂检修导致现货流通偏紧，升水上调。天津地区部分贸易商贴水出货，但下游订单未见显著增长，成交以长单为主。
重庆市场
- 铜价回落刺激点价需求，头部贸易商反馈零单成交量超300吨，好铜品牌成交活跃。

三、库存与供需

库存动态
- 国内社会库存32.8万吨（周降1.2万吨），上海保税区库存10.5万吨（周增0.8万吨）。LME库存续降至20.5万吨，创年内新低。
供需分析
- 供应端：铜精矿TC维持-15美元/吨低位，智利Altonorte冶炼厂复产延迟；国内4月电解铜产量预计112万吨，环比微降。
- 需求端：新能源领域（电动汽车、光伏）订单稳定，但传统线缆企业因高铜价抑制采购，精废价差收窄至1,200元/吨。

四、宏观与政策影响

国际因素
- 美联储释放“higher for longer”信号，美元指数走强压制铜价；美国拟对华铜产品加征25%关税的预期导致贸易商加速转移货源。
国内政策
- 基建投资加码支撑铜消费，但房地产疲软拖累终端需求。广东、江西等地新增电解铜箔项目投产，长期或缓解供应压力。

五、后市展望

短期（1周内）
- 价格区间震荡，沪铜参考74,000-76,000元/吨，关注LME库存变化及关税政策落地。
- 现货升水或维持升50-200元/吨，区域分化延续。
风险提示
- 美国通胀数据超预期或引发进一步加息预期；铜矿罢工事件可能加剧供应扰动。
操作建议
- 贸易商：控制库存周转节奏，关注跨市套利机会。
- 下游企业：逢低分批采购，避免追高。

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2025年4月9日电解铜市场日报：宏观扰动持续 区域成交分化加剧

一、价格走势

二、市场交易情况

三、库存与供需

四、宏观与政策影响

五、后市展望

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2025年4月9日电解铜市场日报：宏观扰动持续区域成交分化加剧