2025年4月9日铝棒日报：承压前行，静待转机

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年4月9日铝棒日报：承压前行，静待转机

2025-04-09 17:12:02 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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当前铝棒市场呈现铝价承压、加工费分化、成交疲软的态势。宏观层面，美国关税政策激化贸易战担忧，全球经济预期转弱，压制铝价。产业端虽有电解铝产能稳定、库存去化支撑，但铝冶炼行业高利润空间削弱价格支撑力，现货买盘情绪低迷。

全国主要市场铝棒加工费呈现 “南弱北稳” 特征。华南佛山等地加工费维持低位，企业为去库存主动让利；华东无锡等地加工费创年内新低，因铝水棒产能集中释放。中西部部分地区如成都、巩义因铝水供应紧张加工费小幅上涨，而西北地区如兰州因需求疲软加工费处于全国最低水平。整体而言，加工费下行主因铝水合金化比例提升致铝棒供应过剩，叠加下游建筑型材需求疲软，加工企业被迫 “以价换量”。多地现货交投清淡，下游仅维持刚需补货，市场对价格下跌恐慌，即便加工费下调，成交仍未放量。

区域差异显著，华南作为铝棒生产基地，库存压力大，加工费显著低于其他地区；华东加工费跌幅大于华南；中西部因铝水供应或运输成本因素，加工费相对坚挺。理论上存在跨区域套利可能，但华东库存压力大、下游接货意愿不足，实际贸易量有限。

展望未来，短期受宏观情绪压制，铝价或维持震荡偏弱，加工费或进一步下探，清明假期后补库需求或短暂释放，但难改整体疲软。中长期需关注国内稳增长政策对铝消费的提振及美国关税政策谈判进展。若铝价跌破成本线，部分高成本铝棒产能或减产，加工费或企稳。随着 “金九银十” 旺季临近，需求回暖超预期则市场情绪有望修复。华南铝棒加工费或持续低位，华东跌幅可能收窄。建议贸易商短期避免囤货，下游企业按需采购并利用期货工具对冲风险，加工企业优化产能结构，转向高附加值产品生产。密切跟踪铝锭库存变化及政策动向，把握阶段性反弹机会。

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2025年4月9日铝棒日报：承压前行，静待转机

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