2025年4月14日电解铜市场日报

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年4月14日电解铜市场日报

2025-04-14 17:30:13 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势与市场表现

现货价格反弹
- 国内现货铜价：今日上海地区1#电解铜现货均价为77040元/吨，较前一日上涨1440元/吨，升贴水区间收窄至贴水20元/吨至升水50元/吨，市场交投重心上移。广东、华北等地价格同步跟涨，下游逢低补库意愿增强，但高价接受度仍有限。
期货市场波动
- 沪铜主力合约（2505）日内波动加剧，宏观政策与库存变化主导盘面，美通胀降温及美联储降息预期升温支撑铜价，但纽约COMEX铜价受贸易战风险交织影响，维持震荡格局。

二、库存动态

全球显性库存分化
- LME库存：连续三周去库，最新库存20.94万吨，降幅2,500吨，反映海外需求边际改善。
- 国内社会库存：截至4月14日，电解铜社会库存26.72万吨，较周初下降3.5万吨，主因下游补库及进口到货减少；保税区库存增至11.99万吨，进口亏损抑制清关，冶炼厂出口货源入库增加。
- 隐性库存压力：贸易商囤货及保税区高库存仍存潜在供应压力，需关注后续进口窗口变化。

三、供需格局分析

供应端矛盾凸显
- 铜矿紧张加剧：进口铜精矿TC费用维持-23美元/吨低位，智利冶炼厂不可抗力事件加剧原料短缺担忧，国内冶炼厂检修计划或于二季度集中释放，预计影响产量。
- 再生铜补充有限：精废价差收窄至1,320元/吨（合理价差1,328元/吨以下），废铜成交低迷，再生铜杆开工率下降，难以缓解电解铜供应缺口。
需求端分化明显
- 传统领域：电力及家电订单稳中有升，空调排产计划达2,400万台（近五年峰值），但高铜价抑制中小线缆企业采购，现货成交以刚需为主。
- 新能源领域：新能源汽车及光伏需求长期向好，但短期受美国关税政策压制出口，部分订单转向东南亚市场。

四、核心影响因素

宏观政策与贸易风险
- 美国关税政策反复：4月10日中国对美加征关税正式生效，供应链“去美化”预期升温，市场对铜出口及废铜进口受限的担忧仍存。
- 国内政策支撑：电网投资额预计突破7,000亿元（同比增18.7%），新能源产业（电动车、算力基建）用铜占比提升至25%（2030年），支撑长期需求。
市场情绪与资金动向
- 前期囤货逻辑弱化后，多头资金撤离导致COMEX铜价单周跌幅14.09%，但近期修复性反弹中投机资金逐步回流，持仓量小幅回升。

五、后市展望与机构观点

短期震荡偏强
- 沪铜主力支撑位上移至72,000元/吨，阻力位78,000元/吨，需关注4月美联储利率决议及国内库存去化节奏。
长期驱动逻辑
- 供应瓶颈：2025年全球铜矿增量仅64万吨，矿端偏紧格局难改，TC低位或倒逼冶炼厂减产。
- 需求增量：新能源与绿色基建（如AI服务器、数据中心）重塑铜消费结构，标普预测2025年LME铜均价为9,825美元/吨。
风险提示
- 美国二次通胀风险、国内出口退税取消、矿端突发停产事件可能加剧价格波动。

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2025年4月14日电解铜市场日报

一、价格走势与市场表现

二、库存动态

三、供需格局分析

四、核心影响因素

五、后市展望与机构观点

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