2025年4月15日电解铜日报

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年4月15日电解铜日报

2025-04-16 08:59:14 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、期货市场动态

沪铜主力合约（2506）：
- 开盘76,350元/吨，最高76,490元/吨，最低75,560元/吨，收盘75,870元/吨，微涨0.15%。
- 持仓量增至150,069手，成交量减少至87,809手，显示市场交投谨慎。
LME铜价：
- 亚盘时段震荡走弱，收盘报9,195美元/吨，跌26美元（-0.28%）。
- 市场对美联储降息预期升温，但美国关税政策反复抑制风险偏好。

二、库存与供需

1. 库存变动

国内社会库存：26.72万吨，较周初下降3.5万吨，主因下游补库及进口到货减少。
保税区库存：增至11.99万吨，进口亏损抑制清关，冶炼厂出口货源入库增加。
LME库存：20.94万吨，连续三周去库，反映海外需求边际改善。

2. 供需格局

供应端：铜精矿TC加工费维持-23美元/吨低位，国内冶炼厂检修计划或于二季度集中释放，预计影响产量。
需求端：
- 传统领域：家电排产达2,400万台（近五年峰值），电力订单稳中有升。
- 新能源领域：新能源汽车及光伏需求长期向好，但美国关税政策压制短期出口。

三、核心影响因素

宏观政策：
- 美国关税风险：4月10日中国对美加征34%关税生效，市场对供应链“去美化”预期升温。
- 国内政策：电网投资额预计突破7,000亿元（同比+18.7%），支撑铜消费。
市场情绪：
- 前期恐慌情绪缓解，铜价修复性反弹，但高铜价抑制下游追涨意愿，现货升贴水收窄至贴水20-升水50元/吨。

四、后市展望

短期（1周内）：
- 沪铜主力支撑位上移至72,000元/吨，阻力位78,000元/吨，需关注美联储利率决议及库存去化节奏。
中长期：
- 矿端瓶颈：2025年全球铜矿增量仅64万吨，TC低位或倒逼冶炼厂减产。
- 需求增量：新能源与绿色基建重塑消费结构，标普预测LME铜年均价9,825美元/吨。

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2025年4月15日电解铜日报

一、期货市场动态

二、库存与供需

三、核心影响因素

三、核心影响因素

四、后市展望

四、后市展望

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