2025年4月16日电解铜市场日报

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年4月16日电解铜市场日报

2025-04-16 17:20:28 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、现货价格与期货动态

现货价格
- 上海市场：今日1#电解铜现货成交价区间为75,910-75,930元/吨，较前一日小幅下跌约0.3%。主流品牌升水铜升水维持在80-120元/吨，平水铜升水30-60元/吨，贸易商挺价意愿强但高价成交有限。
- 广东市场：佛山地区电解铜中间价报75,930元/吨，升水50-90元/吨，库存降至年内低位，持货商惜售情绪明显，但下游仅按需采购。
- 其他市场：华北、重庆等地价格同步调整，区域升贴水差异显著，天津平水铜贴水20元/吨至升水40元/吨，反映区域供需分化。
期货表现
- 沪铜主力（2505合约）：日内震荡走低，收于75,800元/吨附近，跌幅约0.5%，受宏观情绪压制及库存去化节奏影响。
- LME铜价：隔夜收于9,137美元/吨，亚洲时段承压，美元指数走强及贸易战风险交织抑制反弹空间。

二、库存与供需分析

库存动态
- 国内社会库存：截至4月15日，电解铜社会库存为25.89万吨，较上周减少4.13万吨，其中上海、广东库存分别下降2.59万吨、0.83万吨，江苏小幅增加0.12万吨，主因进口到货有限及下游补库。
- 保税区库存：维持9.56万吨，进口亏损抑制清关，冶炼厂出口货源入库增加。
- LME库存：连续三周去库至20.94万吨，海外需求边际改善。
供需格局
- 供应端：铜精矿TC持续低位（-26.25美元/吨），智利矿山事故及冶炼厂检修加剧原料短缺，国内4月电解铜产量预计环比下降0.58万吨，矿端紧张或倒逼冶炼厂减产。
- 需求端：新能源领域（电动车、光伏）订单稳定，但传统线缆企业受高铜价抑制采购，精废价差收窄至1,200元/吨，再生铜补充有限。电网投资加码（预计2025年超6,500亿元）支撑长期需求。

三、核心影响因素

宏观政策与贸易风险
- 美国对华加征34%关税政策落地，引发供应链重构担忧，铜价短期承压，但电解铜暂未被纳入加税清单，实际影响有限。
- 美联储降息预期升温支撑市场情绪，但需警惕二次通胀风险及流动性波动。
市场情绪与资金动向
- 前期囤货逻辑弱化，多头资金撤离导致铜价回调，但下游逢低补库需求释放，现货升水企稳。

四、后市展望

短期（1周内）：沪铜预计在75,000-77,000元/吨区间震荡，关注LME库存变化及国内政策落地节奏。若宏观情绪修复，铜价或试探78,000元/吨阻力位。
长期趋势：矿端供应瓶颈（2025年全球铜矿增量仅1.3%）与新能源需求增长（2030年新能源用铜占比升至25%）将支撑铜价中枢上移，标普预测LME铜年均价或达9,825美元/吨。

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2025年4月16日电解铜市场日报

一、现货价格与期货动态

二、库存与供需分析

三、核心影响因素

四、后市展望

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