4 月 16 日铝行业：区域分化与再生铝承压

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

4 月 16 日铝行业：区域分化与再生铝承压

2025-04-16 17:30:18 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、现货市场：区域供需差异主导分化

A00 铝锭价格呈现 "一跌一涨一平" 格局

华东地区库存增至 25.8 万吨（同比 + 36%），现货流通量增加导致价格承压；华南地区库存降至 17.2 万吨（同比 - 3%），叠加鑫铂股份新能源汽车零部件项目投产预期，需求端支撑价格；中原地区库存达 9.1 万吨（同比 + 15%），但当地再生铝棒企业背靠背接单模式缓解现货压力。

再生铝棒市场弱势运行

再生铝棒价格跟随市场调整，企业看空情绪主导。废铝采购价与 A00 铝锭价差扩大，加工费压缩至低位，部分企业亏损。铝水棒与再生铝棒价差倒挂，河南、湖北等地电解铝厂提供铝水直供优惠，挤压再生铝棒市场份额。

二、价差倒挂：铝水棒替代效应显现

价差形成机制

铝水棒加工费低于再生铝棒，主因原料成本差异及政策补贴。电解铝厂享受绿电补贴，而再生铝企业无类似政策。2025 年国内电解铝新增产能释放，铝水供给充裕。

市场影响

区域替代差异：广东市场铝水棒占比升至 65%（同比 + 8%），而河南因废铝资源丰富，再生铝棒占比仍维持 45%。

出口受限：欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）要求铝制品碳足迹追溯，再生铝棒因废铝来源复杂，出口受阻。

三、区域成交：刚需主导，旺季预期落空

江西、广东市场

江西：下游光伏支架企业采购量同比 - 15%，因组件价格战导致铝材需求萎缩。

广东：佛山铝棒库存同比 + 12%，再生铝棒企业降价接单，但汽车零部件企业备货周期延长。

河南、湖北市场

河南：巩义铝锭库存同比 + 15%，再生铝棒厂通过 "周均价 + 点价" 模式锁定利润。

湖北：再生铝棒企业亏损面扩大至 25%，部分企业转向生产铝灰渣综合利用产品。

四、后市展望：政策与成本博弈加剧

短期压力

库存累积：国内铝锭库存升至 85 万吨（同比 + 18%），累库周期延续至 4 月底。

成本塌陷：氧化铝价格回落，电解铝现金成本降至低位，企业挺价意愿减弱。

中长期支撑

政策红利：《铝产业高质量发展实施方案》明确 2025 年再生铝产量目标 1500 万吨，当前产能利用率仅 65%，后续产能释放将提振需求。

新能源需求：鑫铂股份项目投产后，预计年增铝需求 2 万吨；光伏装机量预计 2025 年达 350GW（同比 + 20%），拉动铝消费。

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4 月 16 日铝行业：区域分化与再生铝承压

一、现货市场：区域供需差异主导分化

A00 铝锭价格呈现 "一跌一涨一平" 格局

再生铝棒市场弱势运行

再生铝棒价格跟随市场调整，企业看空情绪主导。废铝采购价与 A00 铝锭价差扩大，加工费压缩至低位，部分企业亏损。铝水棒与再生铝棒价差倒挂，河南、湖北等地电解铝厂提供铝水直供优惠，挤压再生铝棒市场份额。

二、价差倒挂：铝水棒替代效应显现

价差形成机制

铝水棒加工费低于再生铝棒，主因原料成本差异及政策补贴。电解铝厂享受绿电补贴，而再生铝企业无类似政策。2025 年国内电解铝新增产能释放，铝水供给充裕。

市场影响

区域替代差异：广东市场铝水棒占比升至 65%（同比 + 8%），而河南因废铝资源丰富，再生铝棒占比仍维持 45%。

出口受限：欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）要求铝制品碳足迹追溯，再生铝棒因废铝来源复杂，出口受阻。

三、区域成交：刚需主导，旺季预期落空

江西、广东市场

江西：下游光伏支架企业采购量同比 - 15%，因组件价格战导致铝材需求萎缩。

广东：佛山铝棒库存同比 + 12%，再生铝棒企业降价接单，但汽车零部件企业备货周期延长。

河南、湖北市场

河南：巩义铝锭库存同比 + 15%，再生铝棒厂通过 "周均价 + 点价" 模式锁定利润。

湖北：再生铝棒企业亏损面扩大至 25%，部分企业转向生产铝灰渣综合利用产品。

四、后市展望：政策与成本博弈加剧

短期压力

库存累积：国内铝锭库存升至 85 万吨（同比 + 18%），累库周期延续至 4 月底。

成本塌陷：氧化铝价格回落，电解铝现金成本降至低位，企业挺价意愿减弱。

中长期支撑

政策红利：《铝产业高质量发展实施方案》明确 2025 年再生铝产量目标 1500 万吨，当前产能利用率仅 65%，后续产能释放将提振需求。

新能源需求：鑫铂股份项目投产后，预计年增铝需求 2 万吨；光伏装机量预计 2025 年达 350GW（同比 + 20%），拉动铝消费。

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