2025年4月17日电解铜市场日报

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年4月17日电解铜市场日报

2025-04-17 17:06:33 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、现货价格动态

主流市场报价（元/吨）：
- 上海市场：1#电解铜现货成交价区间为76,040-76,170元/吨，主流品牌升水铜升水80-120元/吨，平水铜升水30-60元/吨。上海有色金属交易中心、上海华通分别报价76,040元/吨和76,095元/吨。
- 广东市场：南储现货报价76,170元/吨，库存低位支撑持货商挺价情绪，但下游按需采购为主。
- 其他地区：华北、重庆等地价格跟随调整，区域价差显著，天津平水铜贴水20元/吨至升水40元/吨，反映区域供需分化。
期货表现：
- 沪铜主力（2505合约）：日内震荡收于75,800元/吨附近，跌幅0.5%，受宏观情绪压制及库存去化节奏影响。
- LME铜价：隔夜收于9,137美元/吨，亚洲时段承压，美元走强及贸易战风险交织抑制反弹空间。

二、库存动态

国内社会库存：截至4月15日，电解铜社会库存为25.89万吨，较上周减少4.13万吨，主因进口到货减少及下游补库需求释放。其中上海、广东库存分别下降2.59万吨和0.83万吨。
LME库存：连续三周去库，最新库存21.63万吨（增加3,775吨），海外需求边际改善但压力仍存。
保税区库存：维持9.56万吨，进口亏损抑制清关，冶炼厂出口货源入库增加。

三、供需格局分析

供应端矛盾加剧：
- 铜矿紧张：进口铜精矿TC费用跌至-23美元/吨低位，智利矿山事故及冶炼厂检修加剧原料短缺，国内4月电解铜产量预计环比下降0.58万吨。
- 再生铜补充有限：精废价差收窄至1,200元/吨（合理价差以下），废铜成交低迷，再生铜杆开工率下降。
需求端分化：
- 新能源领域：电动车及光伏订单稳定，但美国关税政策压制出口，部分订单转向东南亚市场。
- 传统领域：电力及家电订单稳中有升，但高铜价抑制中小线缆企业采购，现货成交以刚需为主。

四、核心影响因素

宏观政策与贸易风险：
- 美国关税政策：对华加征34%关税落地，电解铜暂未被纳入清单，但供应链“去美化”预期升温。
- 美联储政策：鲍威尔表态称高关税或推升滞胀风险，市场对降息预期反复，美元指数波动加剧。
市场情绪与资金动向：
- 前期囤货逻辑弱化，多头资金撤离导致铜价回调，但下游逢低补库需求释放，现货升水企稳。

五、后市展望

短期（1周内）：沪铜预计在75,000-77,000元/吨区间震荡，关注LME库存变化及国内政策落地节奏，若宏观情绪修复或试探78,000元/吨阻力位。
长期趋势：
- 供应瓶颈：2025年全球铜矿增量仅1.3%，矿端偏紧格局难改，TC低位或倒逼冶炼厂减产。
- 需求增量：新能源与绿色基建（如AI服务器、数据中心）重塑铜消费结构，标普预测LME铜年均价或达9,825美元/吨。

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2025年4月17日电解铜市场日报

一、现货价格动态

二、库存动态

三、供需格局分析

四、核心影响因素

五、后市展望

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