2025年4月25日铜市场日报

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年4月25日铜市场日报

2025-04-27 10:41:14 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势

国际铜价
- LME铜价：隔夜伦铜震荡走高，上涨0.92%至9455美元/吨，但午后受美元反弹和库存转移影响，收盘下跌0.30%至9364美元/吨，日内最高触及9460美元，最低下探9350美元。
- COMEX铜价：受美国关税政策预期影响，COMEX铜库存单周增加1544.95吨至11.93万吨，与LME价差扩大至历史高位（超1000美元/吨），刺激跨市套利交易。
国内铜价
- 沪铜主力合约：收于77410元/吨，微跌0.13%，日内波动区间77330-78090元/吨，现货进口窗口关闭，市场情绪谨慎。
- 现货价格：长江现货1#铜报价78220-78260元/吨，较前日持平，升水收窄至平水附近，下游节前备货需求边际改善。

二、库存动态

全球库存分化
- LME库存：连续四周下降，单日减少1825吨至20.34万吨，创年内新低，主要因亚洲库存向美国转移以规避关税风险。
- 国内库存：上海期货交易所铜库存单周降幅达31%，降至11.68万吨，创纪录最大单周去库量，反映国内需求韧性及出口窗口打开。
- 保税区库存：受进口亏损扩大影响，保税区库存增至11.99万吨，但精铜出口同比大增156%加速国内去库。

三、供需分析

供应端压力
- 铜矿紧张：进口铜精矿加工费（TC/RC）跌至-15.83美元/吨，冶炼厂持续亏损，部分企业检修或减产，3月国内精炼铜产量124.8万吨，同比增长8.6%，但矿端矛盾未解。
- 地缘扰动：智利Altonorte冶炼厂不可抗力事件、秘鲁铜矿出口下滑及刚果（金）TFM铜钴矿扩建受阻，加剧供应担忧。
需求端韧性
- 国内需求：电网投资（1-3月同比+21%）、新能源汽车（产量同比+47%）、光伏装机（同比+24.77%）支撑用铜需求，但高铜价抑制中小线缆企业采购。
- 出口驱动：美国加征关税预期下，贸易商加速向北美转移货源，中国1-3月精铜出口同比增156%，短期出口需求前置加剧全球紧平衡。

四、宏观因素

货币政策：美联储官员释放鸽派信号，市场对6月降息预期升温，美元指数周跌3%至年内低点，支撑大宗商品价格。
贸易政策：特朗普拟对进口铜加征25%关税，引发供应链重构焦虑，全球铜贸易流向重塑，COMEX溢价持续高位。
地缘风险：俄乌冲突对欧洲能源成本的影响仍在，叠加巴拿马运河航运瓶颈，铜矿运输受阻风险未消。

五、后市展望

短期震荡偏强：库存低位、美元走弱及需求旺季支撑铜价，但高绝对价格和关税政策不确定性或引发波动，沪铜关注78000-80000元/吨阻力区间。

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2025年4月25日铜市场日报

一、价格走势

二、库存动态

三、供需分析

四、宏观因素

五、后市展望

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