2025年5月15日电解铜市场日报

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年5月15日电解铜市场日报

2025-05-15 17:42:44 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势

现货价格
- 上海市场：1#电解铜现货成交价为 78,325-78,940元/吨，主流升贴水转为贴水行情，较前一日下跌100元/吨，成交重心下移。
- 广东市场：电解铜价格 78,810-79,100元/吨，现货升水20-150元/吨，环比跌75元/吨，下游接货意愿低迷。
- 其他地区：华北、西南等地现货贴水幅度扩大，华北贴50-贴10元/吨，西南升水30元/吨。
期货市场
- 沪铜主连：收于77,870元/吨，跌幅0.80%，日内最高79,090元/吨，最低77,860元/吨。
- LME伦铜：报9,523美元/吨，下跌0.87%，COMEX美铜报 4.6485美元/磅，跌幅1.12%。

二、库存动态

国内库存
- 社会库存：全国电解铜现货库存 12.49万吨，较5月6日减少0.75万吨，主因冶炼厂发货受限及下游刚需补库。
- 保税区库存：上海保税区库存 8.60万吨（环比-0.58万吨），总库存降至9.75万吨，延续去库趋势。
海外库存
- LME库存：降至 185,575吨（环比-4,075吨），Cash-3M价差转正至17美元/吨，反映短期供应趋紧。

三、供需分析

供应端
- 铜矿紧张：铜精矿TC维持低位，智利产量恢复至47.7万吨，但矿端供应紧张未缓解。
- 冶炼产量：5月国内电解铜产量预计维持高位，但进口铜同比减少17.7%，供应压力边际缓解。
需求端
- 下游分化：精铜杆订单下降18.19%，再生铜杆订单增长74.77%；铜箔、铜板带需求偏弱，锂电铜箔以刚需采购为主。
- 交割影响：临近交割换月，BACK月差收窄，现货升贴水进一步探底，下游观望情绪浓厚。

四、宏观与政策

国际因素
- 美联储政策：美元指数V型波动，鲍威尔表态影响市场降息预期，短期压制铜价上行空间。
- 中美贸易：关税谈判缓和提振风险偏好，但实际对铜消费的影响仍需观察。
国内政策
- 产业升级：铜产业高质量发展方案推进，聚焦产能优化与资源保障，长期利好行业。

五、后市展望

短期趋势
- 铜价受低库存及矿端支撑，预计维持高位震荡，沪铜主力目标区间 78,000-80,000元/吨。
- 需警惕高价抑制采购及5月下旬旺季转淡的风险。
长期驱动
- 供需错配或加剧：矿端短缺传导至电解铜供应，叠加新能源领域需求增长，铜价有望突破历史高位。

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2025年5月15日电解铜市场日报

一、价格走势

二、库存动态

三、供需分析

四、宏观与政策

五、后市展望

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