2025年5月16日电解铜市场日报

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年5月16日电解铜市场日报

2025-05-16 17:58:26 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势

现货价格
- 上海市场：主流品牌1#电解铜成交价集中于78,730-78,830元/吨，部分品牌如金冠、祥光等成交于升380-440元/吨，较前一日涨跌互现。持货商报价坚挺，但高价抑制下游接货意愿，整体呈现供需拉锯态势。
- 广东市场：现货价格报78,630-78,830元/吨，升水20-150元/吨，环比下跌75元/吨，成交活跃度受高价影响有限。
- 其他地区：华北市场贴水扩大至50-10元/吨，西南地区库存去化明显，升水小幅回调至30元/吨。
期货市场
- 沪铜主连合约：收盘价78,140元/吨，较前一日下跌0.32%，日内波动区间78,010-78,610元/吨。
- LME伦铜：报9,503美元/吨（-0.77%），受美元指数回落及中国需求预期支撑，但宏观情绪偏中性。

二、库存动态

国内库存
- 社会库存：全国电解铜现货库存降至12.49万吨（较5月6日减少0.75万吨），上海、江苏等地降幅显著，主因冶炼厂发货有限及下游刚需补库。
- 保税区库存：上海保税区库存8.60万吨（-0.58万吨），广东保税区1.15万吨持平，总库存延续去化趋势。
海外库存
- LME库存：减少至19.56万吨（-1.7%），Cash-3M价差转正至17美元/吨，反映短期供应趋紧。

三、供需分析

供应端
- 铜矿紧张：铜精矿TC持续低位（-44.0美元/干吨），矿端供应紧张未缓解，智利3月铜产量恢复至47.7万吨。
- 冶炼产量：预计5月国内电解铜产量约113万吨，环比微增，但进口铜减少（1-3月净进口同比-17.7%）。
需求端
- 下游分化：精铜杆订单环比下降18.19%，再生铜杆订单增长74.77%；铜箔、铜板带需求偏弱，终端企业备库谨慎。
- 交割影响：换月后BACK月差收窄至400-500元/吨，持货商下调升水出货，但下游成交以刚需散单为主。

四、宏观与政策

国际因素
- 美联储政策：维持利率4.25%-4.50%不变，市场预期年内降息空间有限，美元指数回落支撑铜价。
- 贸易摩擦缓和：中美关税谈判进展提振市场情绪，但实际对铜消费的影响仍需观察。
国内政策
- 《铜产业高质量发展方案》持续推进，聚焦冶炼产能优化及资源保障，长期利好行业结构。

五、后市展望

短期趋势
- 铜价受低库存及矿端支撑，预计维持高位震荡，沪铜主力目标区间78,000-80,000元/吨。
- 需警惕高价抑制下游采购及5月下旬旺季转弱带来的回调风险。
风险提示
- 宏观扰动：美联储政策转向、地缘政治冲突升级可能引发价格波动。
- 供需矛盾：若铜矿短缺传导至电解铜供应，或加剧现货紧张态势。

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2025年5月16日电解铜市场日报

一、价格走势

二、库存动态

三、供需分析

四、宏观与政策

五、后市展望

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