基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

2025年5月27日铝行情日报

2025-05-27 17:48:20 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、铝价与加工费逆向运行的核心驱动

当前铝价随盘下跌与加工费震荡上移形成显著反差。铝价承压源于双重压力：供需层面，传统建筑用铝需求同比减少 5%，新能源领域（如单车用铝 250kg 的新能源车）增量尚不足以填补缺口，叠加 LME 铝价弱势（5 月 27 日收 2450 美元 / 吨）及美元走强压制进口；宏观层面，海外关税不确定性与国内下游开工率低迷（尤其华南建筑型材订单下滑），导致需求端支撑匮乏。加工费逆势上涨则受三重逻辑支撑：成本端，全球能源价格波动推高生产成本，企业通过提价转嫁铝价下跌带来的利润压力；区域差异上，佛山、无锡、南昌加工费普涨 60-90 元 / 吨，南昌因产能分散、运输成本高（佛山至南昌运费约 280 元 / 吨）涨幅居前，佛山因竞争激烈基数低涨幅较缓；市场博弈中，持货商初期挺价后因成交弱局部降价，形成 "报价上调 - 成交疲软 - 震荡调整" 格局。

二、区域价差与成交疲软的深层逻辑

区域价差反映供需错配而非运输成本主导：佛山 - 无锡、佛山 - 南昌价差分别为 - 100 元 / 吨、-90 元 / 吨，均低于两地汽运成本（250 元 / 吨、280 元 / 吨），无锡因周边供应过剩、南昌因本地货源不足，导致加工费区域性分化。成交疲软源于结构性矛盾：建筑用铝需求同比减少 150 万吨，新能源增量有限，下游企业仅维持刚需采购；同时铝价下跌引发贸易商抛售，投机性需求缺位，叠加沪粤价差收窄消除套利空间，市场陷入 "有价无市" 困境。

三、后市展望与策略建议

短期铝价受库存低位（电解铝锭降至 53.4 万吨）与宏观压力博弈，料维持震荡偏弱，若海外关税缓和或新能源需求超预期，存在技术性反弹可能；加工费上行空间受需求疲软制约，佛山、无锡等竞争激烈地区或回调，南昌等供应偏紧区域仍具韧性，能源价格持续上涨或再推升成本。区域价差方面，云南新增产能（2025 年预计 140 万吨）释放将加剧华南供应压力，或向华东传导促使佛山 - 无锡价差收窄，南昌需警惕周边货源流入冲击。综上，市场核心矛盾在于传统需求下滑与新兴需求接力不畅，以及区域供需错配下的成本转嫁。建议下游企业密切跟踪库存与政策动向，灵活调整采购策略；加工企业优化产能布局、提升技术降本，以应对不确定性。

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