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2025年6月9日电解铜市场日报

2025-06-09 17:53:24 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、市场全景速览

6月9日，国内电解铜现货市场延续普涨态势，但区域分化加剧：中国主要城市电解铜价格涨幅区间为20 - 110元/吨，华南（广州）、华北（济南） 需求修复领涨，东北（沈阳） 因传统需求疲软涨幅收敛，市场在“低库存惯性支撑+情绪驱动+需求分化”逻辑下维持偏强，但上行动能边际减弱。

二、价格走势：分化加剧的普涨格局

（一）核心城市价格与涨幅拆解（单位：元/吨）

涨幅梯队	城市	当日价格	日涨幅	区域特征与涨跌逻辑
领涨（+110）	广州	78725	+110	华南消费核心，库存低位+贸易商惜售
	济南	78680	+110	华北加工基地，企业补库意愿增强
中幅上涨	北京	78750	+90	政策核心区，长单交付+散单补涨
（+60 - 90）	天津	78590	+90	北方港口枢纽，到港节奏平稳+情绪传导
	重庆	78805	+75	西南产业腹地，新能源需求托底
	上海	78805	+70	华东主销中心，投机性需求边际降温
	武汉	78880	+60	华中物流枢纽，端午后补库动能衰减
	西安	78680	+40	西北基建重镇，零星复工支撑有限
弱涨（+20）	沈阳	78640	+20	东北产业枢纽，传统需求疲软压制

（二）领涨区域：华南、华北需求边际修复

广州、济南（+110元/吨）：华南地区电解铜社会库存延续去化（截至6月8日广州库存环比降0.15万吨），贸易商“低库存+看涨预期”下惜售心态浓厚，现货升水维持80 - 150元/吨；华北加工企业（如线缆、变压器）端午后启动“小旺季”补库，精铜杆开工率环比提升1.5个百分点至67%，刚需采购叠加情绪带动，价格领涨全国。
北京、天津（+90元/吨）：北京作为政策核心区，国企长单交付占比高，散单市场受期货联动（沪铜主力收涨0.35%，报79050元/吨）带动补涨；天津港电解铜到港节奏平稳（周到港量0.8万吨），但贸易商“跟涨不追高”，价格弹性略逊于广州、济南。

（三）涨幅收敛：东北、西北需求疲软压制

沈阳（+20元/吨）：东北传统工业（如重工机械、建筑五金）需求持续低迷，黄铜棒企业开工率不足55%，叠加区域废铜供应宽松（精废差扩至1300元/吨），精铜替代需求走弱，仅靠新能源产业链（如动力电池铜箔）零星订单支撑，价格涨幅收敛至全市场最低。
西安、武汉（+40 - 60元/吨）：西北基建项目复工节奏缓慢（环比复工率增3%但低于预期），西安电解铜需求以零星补货为主；华中武汉作为物流枢纽，铜管、铜板带企业端午后补库动能衰减，叠加区域到货量环比增0.2万吨，价格弹性被压制，涨幅低于华北、华南核心城市。

三、价格驱动：供需弱平衡下的情绪主导

（一）供应端：冶炼挺价+进口窗口收敛

国内冶炼：6月检修规模维持低位（仅1家企业小修，周影响产量0.5万吨），叠加硫酸价格高位（98%冶炼酸报255元/吨）弥补冶炼亏损，冶炼厂挺价意愿延续，主流品牌现货升水维持50 - 120元/吨。
进口市场：LME/沪铜比价测算进口亏损扩大至150元/吨，保税区铜流入国内节奏放缓，市场流通货源偏紧，进一步强化供应端支撑。

（二）需求端：补库动能衰减+结构分化

传统消费：端午后下游加工企业（线缆、家电、五金）补库进入“尾声阶段”，精铜杆企业原料库存天数从8天回落至7天，现货成交热度环比降10%（上海市场单日成交减8%）。
新兴领域：新能源汽车6月排产计划环比增3%（比亚迪、蔚来等车企订单边际走弱），光伏组件厂铜带采购量持平，结构性需求托底但增量有限。

（三）宏观面：美元震荡+政策预期降温

美元指数震荡于104.3（美联储6月议息会议“暂缓降息”信号发酵），人民币汇率小幅贬值（在岸人民币兑美元报7.19），削弱国内铜价相对竞争力；
市场对国内“稳增长”政策落地节奏预期降温，风险偏好回落，沪铜期货持仓量降2%，现货情绪从“主动跟涨”转向“被动跟盘”。

四、后市展望：偏强震荡下的动能切换

（一）短期支撑延续

低库存韧性：国内社会库存延续微幅去化（本周降0.2万吨至13.6万吨），LME库存续降（14.1万吨），全球显性库存仍处历史低位，为价格提供底部支撑；
情绪惯性：期货市场多头持仓未大规模离场，现货贸易商“看涨惜售”心态短期难逆转。

（二）潜在压制因素

高铜价抑制需求：精废差扩至1300元/吨，废铜替代效应边际增强，若铜价突破79200元/吨，下游投机性需求或快速收缩；
宏观政策真空期：美联储6月议息会议后无重大政策节点，国内“稳增长”政策落地前，市场风险偏好或维持低位。

（三）明日价格区间预判

预计6月10日国内电解铜价格波动区间为78500 - 79000元/吨，关注上海现货升贴水（今日升水60 - 120元/吨）及下游成交持续性，同时警惕宏观情绪（如美元走势、政策传闻）对市场的扰动。

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[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 13 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001379s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 14 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001454s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 19 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001403s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 15 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001435s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001351s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001353s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001455s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 48 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000388s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 49 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000355s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 50 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000364s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000462s ]