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2025年6月11日电解铜市场日报——多数城市上行，区域分化显现

2025-06-11 18:04:10 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、市场概述

今日，国内主要城市电解铜价格呈现 “多数上行、局部调整” 的格局。不同区域因供需节奏、库存周转及下游采购强度差异，价格表现分化明显，日内波动由区域流通逻辑主导。

二、价格走势与涨跌分布

监测国内10个核心流通城市电解铜价格（单位：元/吨，涨跌为当日价格变动）：

城市	价格	涨跌	表现特征
天津	79095	+45	北方领涨城市
沈阳	79130	+30	东北市场偏强
北京	79255	+45	华北领涨城市
西安	79170	+30	西北跟随上行
广州	79225	+30	华南补库支撑
重庆	79285	-10	西南局部回调
武汉	79330	-10	华中小幅承压
济南	79140	+20	华东（山东）上行
上海	79265	-	全国定价锚暂稳

三、区域市场深度分析

1. 北方市场（华北、东北）：普涨为主，刚需支撑强劲

天津、北京单日涨45元/吨领涨全国，沈阳、济南同步上行（30 - 20元/吨）。核心驱动为：

下游刚需释放：北方线缆、五金加工企业进入周中常规补库周期，订单确定性支撑采购意愿；
贸易商挺价情绪：前期库存去化后，现货流通量收缩，贸易环节惜售心态升温。

2. 华东市场：上海暂稳，博弈格局延续

上海作为国内铜现货“定价锚”，价格持稳于79265元/吨。背后逻辑：

期现联动：沪铜期货日内震荡整理，现货升贴水（买卖价差）窄幅波动，期现套利盘操作空间有限；
供需平衡：港口库存、保税区货源与下游加工企业采购节奏暂时匹配，缺乏单边驱动信号。

3. 中西部市场：分化加剧，库存与投机行为主导

西安（西北）：跟随北方逻辑上行30元/吨，受益于西北电网工程、制造业补库需求扩散；
重庆、武汉（西南、华中）：双双回调10元/吨，主因局部库存短期累积（贸易商阶段性抛货）、终端投机性采购降温，价格承压回落。

4. 华南市场：广州上行，旺季补库发力

广州涨30元/吨，核心支撑为 珠三角制造业旺季效应：家电、汽车产业链订单回暖，叠加物流效率提升下现货流动性改善，贸易商报价随采购热度上移。

四、市场驱动与逻辑总结

日内价格波动的核心矛盾是 “区域供需错配”：

上涨城市：下游刚需（如线缆、五金）集中采购+贸易端挺价，推动报价上行；
下行城市：局部库存增加+投机抛盘+终端观望，导致价格回调；
上海锚点：期铜震荡+现货供需平衡，价格暂稳。

五、后市展望

短期（1 - 3个交易日），国内电解铜市场或延续 “区域分化+区间震荡” 格局：

需求端：传统旺季（建筑、电力）需求韧性存，但制造业订单分化下，采购节奏难形成全国性一致驱动；
供应端：冶炼厂开工率高位运行，进口窗口波动影响区域库存补充节奏；
宏观面：关注美联储政策预期、国内稳增长政策落地对商品情绪的传导，若预期改善，或强化铜价中期支撑。

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