2025年6月12日电解铜市场日报——普跌行情下的供需与情绪博弈

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年6月12日电解铜市场日报——普跌行情下的供需与情绪博弈

2025-06-13 17:08:35 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、市场表现：普跌格局，广州领跌

今日（2025年6月12日）中国主要城市电解铜价格呈现集体下行特征，供需疲软叠加期货情绪压制，市场进入阶段性调整周期。

据北方有色网监测数据，全国9个核心城市电解铜价格全线下调，跌幅区间260 - 300元/吨：

领跌城市：广州报价78925元/吨，单日下跌300元/吨，作为华南电解铜流通核心枢纽，贸易商出货压力下率先深调；
普遍下跌：重庆（79005元/吨，↓280）、武汉（79050元/吨，↓280）、济南（78860元/吨，↓280）、天津（78815元/吨，↓280）、北京（78975元/吨，↓280）、西安（78890元/吨，↓280）同步下探280元/吨；
温和调整：沈阳（78870元/吨，↓260）、上海（78980元/吨，↓285）跌幅相对收窄，上海因长三角产业链韧性略强、沈阳受东北需求基数限制，调整幅度更缓。

二、核心驱动：“期货承压+需求淡季+宏观偏空”共振

今日现货普跌是期货情绪、供需结构、宏观预期三重压力共振的结果：

期货端：沪铜主力合约弱势下行，锚定现货预期沪铜期货今日开盘即下探，盘中跌破68000元/吨关键支撑（截至16:00报67850元/吨，单日下跌350元/吨）。期货领跌引发现货贸易商“跟跌出货”，市场恐慌情绪短暂升温，进一步放大现货跌幅。
需求端：下游淡季效应凸显，采购积极性骤降六月进入传统消费淡季，下游铜杆、铜管企业开工率回落至6 - 7成（环比下降10% - 15%）；叠加“618”备货周期结束，企业以消耗库存为主，刚需采购量环比减少20% - 25%，需求端对价格支撑大幅弱化。
宏观端：美元走强+政策空窗，有色估值承压美联储6月议息会议前（6月18 - 19日），市场交易“加息延后但不降息”预期，美元指数回升至105关口，压制有色板块估值；国内稳增长政策暂未释放新信号，宏观面“无增量利好”进一步放大下跌弹性。

三、区域差异：消费能级决定调整弹性

不同城市跌幅分化，本质是区域消费强度、贸易格局差异的体现：

华南（广州）：作为全国最大电解铜集散地（占流通量30%+），贸易商库存周转压力大，叠加珠三角线缆、电子企业订单疲软（环比降15%），价格调整更具“引领性”，领跌300元/吨；
华东（上海）：长三角新能源（光伏、储能）领域需求韧性较强（开工率8成+），部分企业逢低补库（补库比例10% - 15%），一定程度缓冲跌势，跌幅收窄至285元/吨；
东北（沈阳）：东北电解铜需求以传统工业（电力、重工）为主，夏季检修季下开工率偏低（5 - 6成），市场成交清淡，价格调整“以稳为主”，跌幅最小（260元/吨）。

四、后市前瞻：关注“期货支撑+库存拐点+政策预期”

短期（6月13 - 18日）市场或延续**“弱震荡+等待驱动”**格局，核心跟踪三大变量：

沪铜期货能否收复68000元/吨：若期货重返关键支撑位，现货跌势或放缓；反之，现货或再下台阶；
电解铜社会库存变化：明日（6月13日）SMM库存数据若延续累库（当前预估累库0.5 - 1万吨），供应压力将进一步传导至现货；
美联储议息会议前瞻：6月18 - 19日会议前，市场对“利率路径”的交易或加剧价格波动，需警惕情绪性超跌。

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2025年6月12日电解铜市场日报——普跌行情下的供需与情绪博弈

一、市场表现：普跌格局，广州领跌

二、核心驱动：“期货承压+需求淡季+宏观偏空”共振

三、区域差异：消费能级决定调整弹性

四、后市前瞻：关注“期货支撑+库存拐点+政策预期”

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