基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年6月16日锂市场行情：锂矿、锂盐齐跌，金属锂僵持

2025-06-16 18:36:34 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：杨浩

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一、市场综述

今日锂市场延续“矿端、化合物普跌，金属锂持稳”格局。锂精矿受供应增量预期与需求疲软拖累，价格普遍下探；锂化合物（碳酸锂、氢氧化锂等）因成本支撑减弱、下游采购谨慎，价格集体回落；金属锂受供需博弈僵持影响，暂未出现波动。整体市场受全球供应过剩、终端需求淡季双重压制，价格下行压力持续。

二、细分市场价格动态

（一）锂矿市场：普跌为主，非洲、江西产区领跌

今日锂矿价格呈现“锂辉石、锂云母全面下行，磷锂铝石持稳”特征：

锂辉石精矿：非洲产区（3.0-6.0%品位）价格均下跌10元/吨度，6%品位锂辉石精矿（美元计价）下跌8美元/吨；江西产区锂云母精矿（1.5-2.5%品位）同步下跌8元/吨度。

磷锂铝石：非洲产区（6.0-8.0%品位）价格持稳，反映其因资源稀缺性，短期受市场波动影响较小。

驱动因素：全球锂矿供应增量预期（阿根廷、澳大利亚、非洲新产能释放）叠加下游锂盐厂库存高位，采购意愿低迷，矿端价格承压下行。

（二）锂化合物市场：集体回落，碳酸锂、氢氧化锂领跌

锂化合物价格呈现“全品类下跌，碳酸锂、氢氧化锂跌幅显著”：

碳酸锂：优质电池级碳酸锂（Li₂CO₃≥99.6%）下跌350元/吨，电池级（≥99.5%）、工业级（≥99.2%）同步下调350元/吨；

氢氧化锂：电池级（LiOH≥56.5%，粗颗粒、微粉）、工业级（粗颗粒）均下跌350元/吨；

六氟磷酸锂、电解液：价格持稳，反映电解液环节因配方稳定、库存周转慢，短期对锂价波动传导滞后。

核心逻辑：下游电池厂因终端新能源汽车、储能排产增幅有限（6月排产环比增≤5%），普遍以长协+客供模式提货；上游锂盐厂受锂矿降价、成本支撑减弱影响，被动下调报价，市场成交重心持续下移。

（三）金属锂市场：供需僵持，价格暂稳

电池级、工业级金属锂（≥99.9%）价格均保持不变。当前金属锂市场呈现“供应端惜售、需求端观望”博弈：原生金属锂企业因成本压力（关联碳酸锂价格），挺价意愿强；但下游合金、高端电池领域需求疲软，采购量难以放大，价格暂维持僵持。

三、市场影响因素分析

（一）供需层面

供应端：全球锂矿2025年预计新增产能12-28%（阿根廷、澳大利亚、非洲为主），国内锂盐厂开工率维持高位（电池级碳酸锂开工率≈75%），供应过剩压力持续放大。

需求端：新能源汽车（6月国内销量预计环比增3%，低于往年同期5%均值）、储能（海外订单增速放缓）需求淡季特征显著，下游去库存周期延长。

（二）成本与政策

成本联动：锂矿价格持续下跌（非洲锂辉石较年初跌超20%），导致锂盐厂生产成本下移，价格调整空间打开。

政策约束：国内锂电回收政策逐步落地（如《动力蓄电池回收管理办法》），再生锂供应占比提升（预计2025年达18%），进一步压制原生锂价格。

（三）库存与情绪

库存压力：国内主流锂盐厂库存周期超45天，部分企业为去库存选择“暗降”促销。

市场情绪：机构普遍看空短期锂价（大和资本预计2025年LCE价格或跌至7-7.5万元/吨），贸易商出货意愿强于采购，加剧价格下行。

四、后市展望

短期来看，锂市场将延续“供需过剩、价格承压”格局。

利空主导：供应增量、需求淡季、库存高位三重压力下，锂矿、锂化合物价格或继续小幅下行。

潜在利好：若7-8月新能源汽车旺季需求启动，或阶段性提振价格，但需观察终端消费复苏力度。

中长期需关注“海外新产能落地进度、国内回收体系放量、新能源政策刺激”三大变量：若供应过剩持续超预期，锂价或测试企业成本底线（部分高成本矿山、云母提锂企业已逼近亏损线）；反之，政策驱动需求回暖或带动价格反弹。

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2025年6月16日锂市场行情：锂矿、锂盐齐跌，金属锂僵持

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