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2025年1月15日锌行情日报：锌市今日现颓势，下游逢低少量入手，交投寡淡

2025-01-16 09:00:32 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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市场总结

上海地区：普通国产品牌对沪锌 2502 合约升水 455 元 / 吨，现货成交价 24,430 元 / 吨，较前一日跌 390 元 / 吨。升贴水集中在 425-465 元 / 吨，较前一日跌 150 元 / 吨。市场交投弱，下游少量采购，主要是贸易商间交易，贸易商多次调价促成交。

天津地区：普通国产品牌现货成交价 24,455 元 / 吨，较前一日涨 480 元 / 吨。0# 紫金对沪锌 2502 合约升水 450-500 元 / 吨。市场成交一般，锌价破位下跌，到货量少，现货流通紧张，下游厂家陆续放假，需求减弱，升水小幅下跌。

佛山地区：主流品牌报价 24,550 元 / 吨，较前一日跌 330 元 / 吨。沪粤价差反转，粤市跌幅小于沪市，0# 麒麟、驰宏锌锗、蒙自对沪锌 2502 合约升水 460-480 元 / 吨。下游询价少，持货商出货积极，靠少量刚需成交。

明日升水下行预测原因分析

需求端因素

整体需求疲软：春节临近，下游企业陆续放假，无论是镀锌厂、氧化锌厂家还是锌合金厂家，开工率都在下降，对锌的采购需求大幅减少。比如天津市场，下游厂家放假使得需求减弱，导致升水已经开始小幅下跌，这种趋势在后续还会持续。

采购意愿不强：市场交投氛围清淡，下游企业多以刚需采购为主，对升水的接受度降低，使得升水缺乏支撑，有下行压力。像上海市场，下游少量逢低采购，难以支撑较高的升水水平。

供应端因素

到货预期增加：虽然当前天津市场到货量少，但随着时间推移，运输等因素的影响下，后续可能会有更多的锌锭到货，供应紧张局面会得到缓解，升水将受到抑制。上海市场此前就曾因现货量增多出现过升水下跌的情况，若后续到货持续增加，升水下行趋势会更明显。

产能释放预期：1 月份部分炼厂有提产计划，内蒙、云南、河南和湖南等地炼厂排产增加，四川、广西、广东等地炼厂也存在复产增量，供应的增加会使市场上锌锭的可流通量增多，从而导致升水下行。

市场情绪及其他因素

锌价走势影响：锌价破位下跌，市场看空情绪较浓，贸易商和下游企业都更加谨慎，采购积极性不高，贸易商为了出货可能会进一步降低升水。

宏观经济影响：美元指数高位对有色走势有压制，宏观经济对锌市的支撑不足，市场整体表现较为疲软，也会使得升水难以维持在较高水平。

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